兴业期货日度策略-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Equity Index [2] - Cautiously Bearish: Treasury Bonds, Coke, Coking Coal, Carbonate Lithium [2][7] - Bearish: Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass, Crude Oil [6][7] - Bullish: Rubber [8] - Sideways: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Methanol, Polyolefins, Cotton [5][8] 2. Core Views - The equity index is on an upward trend with continuous inflow of funds and clear long - term narratives, so a long - position strategy should be maintained [2]. - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and lack of new positive factors [2]. - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and short - position strategies are recommended [7]. - Rubber's fundamentals are improving, and long - position strategies should be continued [3][8]. - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decisions [5]. - Silver maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - Copper prices are supported in the medium - to long - term by tight mine supply, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy [5]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are in a sideways pattern, with limited downward space for alumina and clear medium - term support for aluminum [5]. - Nickel prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern, and selling call options is recommended [5]. - Carbonate lithium supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [6]. - Polysilicon prices may decline due to the need for market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - Rebar prices are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - Coke prices are mainly sideways, and coking coal prices are under pressure [7]. - Float glass prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - Crude oil prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - Methanol prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - Cotton demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Equity Index: The Shanghai Composite Index hit a ten - year high, and the bullish sentiment is rising. With continuous capital inflow and clear long - term narratives, the upward trend is clear, and long positions should be held [2]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is weak, affected by the strong stock market. Without new positive factors, the bearish pattern continues [2]. Commodity Futures - Soda Ash: The industry has an oversupply situation. With the possible commissioning of new devices, supply pressure will increase, and previous short positions in SA601 should be held [3][7]. - Rubber: The fundamentals are improving, with stable demand and slow raw - material production increase. Long positions in RU2601 should be held [3][8]. - Precious Metals - Gold: Prices are in a high - level sideways pattern. The Fed's interest - rate decisions and the speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium are key factors [5]. - Silver: Maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Supply is tight in the medium - to long - term, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy and the US dollar trend [5]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Alumina has an overcapacity situation but low valuation, and aluminum has clear medium - term support. Both are in a sideways pattern [5]. - Nickel: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, and prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern. Selling call options is recommended [5]. - Lithium and Silicon - Carbonate Lithium: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. Aggressive investors can hold previous short positions lightly [6]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon supply is abundant, and polysilicon prices may decline due to market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - Steel and Iron - Rebar: Fundamentals are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options in RB2510C3300 is recommended [6]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - Iron Ore: Prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - Coal and Coke - Coke: Prices are mainly sideways, affected by environmental protection policies on both supply and demand sides [7]. - Coking Coal: Prices are under pressure due to weakening demand from steel and coke enterprises [7]. - Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: Maintains an oversupply situation, and previous short positions in the 01 contract should be held [7]. - Float Glass: Prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - Energy - Crude Oil: Prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - Chemicals - Methanol: Prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - Polyolefins: The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - Agricultural Products - Cotton: Demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. - Rubber: The fundamentals are improving, and long positions should be held [3][8].