BOCOM International·2025-08-21 13:13Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price raised to HKD 23.00, indicating a potential upside of 22.5% from the current closing price of HKD 18.77 [1][7][11]. Core Insights - The company's 1H25 earnings exceeded expectations, with a net profit of RMB 668 million, surpassing the full-year forecast for 2024. This growth is attributed to underwriting profits and the turnaround of its banking operations [2][8]. - Premium income grew by 9.3% year-on-year, primarily driven by the health ecosystem, consumer finance, and automotive sectors, although the digital life ecosystem saw a decline of 16% [8]. - The combined ratio improved year-on-year, with underwriting profits increasing by 109%, mainly from the health ecosystem and consumer finance [8]. - Investment income remained stable, with total investment income growing by 3% year-on-year, and the annualized total/net investment return rates at 3.3%/2.1% [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company show a steady increase from RMB 27,535 million in 2023 to RMB 33,504 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.5% [6][9]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly, from RMB 603 million in 2024 to RMB 1,205 million in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 99.7% [6][10]. - The report highlights a decrease in the combined ratio from 97.3% to 96.0% for 2025E, indicating improved underwriting efficiency [10][16]. Key Assumptions and Forecasts - The report outlines key assumptions for various segments, with health insurance expected to grow by 33.3% in 2025E, while the digital life segment is projected to decline by 18.7% [9][16]. - The underwriting profit for 2025E is forecasted at RMB 1,334 million, a 34.7% increase from the previous year [10][16]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is projected to be RMB 1,205 million, with an EPS of RMB 0.82, reflecting a significant upward revision from previous estimates [10][15].