Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, logs showed characteristics of "stable spot prices, rising overseas prices, and falling inventories." Spot prices remained flat, while overseas CFR prices increased, pushing up the inverted import profit. Port inventories decreased, and the supply arrival volume dropped sharply, intensifying the short - term supply interruption risk. The demand side showed a "not - so - slack season" situation. Considering low inventories, cost support, and the shortage of deliverable goods, it is expected that next week's spot prices will still be stable with a slight upward trend, but for futures in the long - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the recovery of supply [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Price: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Taicang was 780 yuan/cubic meter, both remaining flat week - on - week. - Supply: The expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs was 190,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 60%. The total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.08 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84%. - Demand: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period was 64,200 cubic meters, remaining flat week - on - week. - Import Cost: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month was 116 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month increase of 2% [6]. Strategy - Single - side: Considering low inventories, cost support, and the shortage of deliverable goods, it is expected that next week's spot prices will still be stable with a slight upward trend. However, for futures in the long - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the recovery of supply. Aggressive investors can slightly short against the previous high. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7][8] Core Logic Analysis - Not provided Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - In July 2025, the number of departing vessels of New Zealand logs decreased by 6 compared with June, and the total shipment volume decreased by 2%. The shipment volume to China increased by 5%. - From August 9 - 15, 2025, a total of 13 ships with 500,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 3 ships and 130,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 3 ships and 130,000 cubic meters. - From August 11 - 17, 2025, the expected number of arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 11 ports in China was 7, a decrease of 8 compared with the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 53%. The total arrival volume was about 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 286,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 60% [16][17]. Log Inventory - As of August 8, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.08 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.52 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The North American log inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 25%. The spruce/fir inventory remained flat week - on - week. - As of August 8, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong decreased by 24,000 cubic meters compared with the previous period, that at 3 ports in Jiangsu decreased by 24,000 cubic meters, that at 3 ports in Fujian decreased by 28,644 cubic meters, that at 2 ports in Hebei decreased by 1,000 cubic meters, the inventory at Dongguan Port in Guangdong decreased by 5,000 cubic meters, and the inventory at Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [20]. Log Demand - As of August 8, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, remaining flat week - on - week. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong increased by 1.96% week - on - week, while that at 3 ports in Jiangsu decreased by 2.59% week - on - week. - As of August 12, the sample construction site fund availability rate was 58.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27 percentage points. The non - housing construction project fund availability rate increased by 0.34 percentage points, and the housing construction project fund availability rate increased by 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [25]. Log Prices - Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices: In Rizhao, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and down 5.06% year - on - year. In Taicang, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 780 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and down 3.70% year - on - year. In Rizhao, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs was 1,150 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and up 1.77% year - on - year [32]. - Downstream Timber Prices: The mainstream transaction price of 30004090 radiata pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of 30004090 spruce/fir timber in the Shandong market was 1,750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 1,690 yuan/cubic meter [37]. - Imported Log Costs: In August 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 2 US dollars per cubic meter compared with the previous month. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 2 euros per cubic meter compared with the previous month. The increase in overseas prices in August led to a decrease in traders' willingness to take delivery, and the actual transactions were average [42].
现货稳中趋强，需求持续性待考验
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-21 13:05