黑色金属早报-20250821
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-21 13:34
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of steel are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center may shift downwards before the parade. The prices of coking coal and coke may see their price centers gradually rise, and one can wait for corrections to go long on far - month contracts. Iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and ferroalloy futures prices are close to the cost of some production areas, with high - premium risks largely released [5][14][17][19][20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Related Information: From January to July, China's new and renovated rural roads totaled 51,000 kilometers, and the fixed - asset investment in rural roads reached 206.24 billion yuan. In July, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Beijing's rebar remained unchanged, while the spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin's hot - rolled coils decreased by 20 yuan [3][4] - Logical Analysis: The black sector rebounded slightly last night. Currently, steel products are generally accumulating inventory, with the inventory accumulation rate slowing down. Hot - rolled steel demand remains strong, while construction steel demand is accelerating its decline. With the approaching parade, blast furnace production cuts may drive down raw material prices and lower the steel price center. Steel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term [5] - Trading Strategy: Steel will maintain a range - bound trend. It is recommended to enter into positive basis spreads on dips and hold them. It is advisable to wait and see on options [8][9][10] Coking Coal and Coke - Related Information: On the 20th, the online auction sentiment of coking coal in the Lvliang market was poor, with many auctions resulting in failures or price cuts. The coking coal forward market was stable. The warehouse - receipt prices of coke and coking coal in different regions were provided [11][12] - Logical Analysis: The spot price of coking coal fluctuates, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. The coking enterprises proposed a seventh - round price increase for coke, but the downstream steel mills have not given a clear response. In the medium term, coal supply will be disrupted, and the coking coal price center will gradually rise [13][14] - Trading Strategy: Wait for corrections to go long on far - month contracts. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading [15] Iron Ore - Related Information: The US Treasury Secretary said there was a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues. Six out of nine listed building materials companies achieved profitability in the first half of 2025. On the 20th, the national main port iron ore trading volume increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the construction steel trading volume of 237 mainstream traders increased by 12.4% month - on - month. The spot prices and standard product prices of different iron ore varieties were provided [16] - Logical Analysis: The iron ore price rose 1.04% last night, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream ore shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving the price up are weakening. Iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term [17] - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy was provided in the text. Ferroalloy - Related Information: In July 2025, the national manganese ore imports were 2743500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.22% and a year - on - year increase of 19.61%. The spot prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were provided [19] - Logical Analysis: On the 20th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, and the production increased last week. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore decreased, and the production of manganese - silicon accelerated. The high - premium risks of both have been largely released [19][20] - Trading Strategy: Partially reduce short positions. Enter into positive spot - futures arbitrage when the basis is low. Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21]