银河期货铁合金日报-20250821

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Black Metal R & D Report, Ferroalloy Daily [1][2] - Report date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] - Futures practice certificate number: F03134259 [3] - Investment consulting certificate number: Z0021009 [3] - Contact information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - SF main contract: closing price 5638, daily change +16, weekly change -280, trading volume 234,935, daily change -32,976, open interest 228,094, daily change +3,215 [4] - SM main contract: closing price 5838, daily change +2, weekly change -212, trading volume 161,343, daily change -70,832, open interest 288,840, daily change +6,712 [4] Spot Market - Silicon iron: spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, while prices in Jiangsu and Tianjin remained stable; weekly changes were -50 to -200 yuan/ton [4] - Manganese silicon: spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton; weekly changes were -50 to -300 yuan/ton [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon iron: basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was -238, daily change -66, weekly change +130; SF - SM spread was -200, daily change +14, weekly change -68 [4] - Manganese silicon: basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was -88, daily change -2, weekly change +162 [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump remained stable at 40.5 yuan/ton degree, South African semi - carbonate remained stable at 34.7 yuan/ton degree, Gabonese lump decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree to 39.7 yuan/ton degree [4] - Blue charcoal small pieces: prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained stable [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Market Analysis - Silicon iron: on August 21, spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and production increased recently. Steel output remained high, supporting raw material demand. After a sharp price drop this week, futures prices were close to production costs in some regions, and high - premium risks were largely released. Prices were expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the near term [6] - Manganese silicon: on August 21, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and manganese silicon spot prices generally decreased. Whether the current resumption of production would be interrupted after the price drop needed attention. The apparent demand for threaded steel samples increased slightly this week, and no downward trend had formed yet. High - premium risks were largely released at current prices, and prices were expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the near term [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: futures prices were close to production costs in some regions, high - premium risks were largely released, and prices were expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the near term [7] - Arbitrage: when the basis was low, cash - and - carry arbitrage could be considered [7] - Options: sell straddle option combinations at high prices [7] Group 4: Important Information - From January to July 2025, the total domestic billet export volume was 7472,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 309.72%; in July, the total domestic billet export volume was 1,579,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.37% and a year - on - year increase of 349.07% [8] - On August 21, the quotation for semi - carbonate at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabonese lump was 39.5 yuan/ton degree, CML Australian lump was 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton degree, South32 Australian lump was 40.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron was 29.8 yuan/ton degree, and South African medium - iron lump was 36.5 yuan/ton degree [8] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia: production cost 5535 yuan/ton, profit - 135 yuan/ton [19] - Qinghai: production cost 5457 yuan/ton, profit - 57 yuan/ton [19] - Gansu: production cost 5609 yuan/ton, profit - 159 yuan/ton [19] Manganese Silicon - Inner Mongolia: production cost 5853 yuan/ton, profit - 33 yuan/ton [22] - Ningxia: production cost 5958 yuan/ton, profit - 108 yuan/ton [22] - Guangxi: production cost 6430 yuan/ton, profit - 530 yuan/ton [22] - Guizhou: production cost 6176 yuan/ton, profit - 326 yuan/ton [22]