银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250821

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report on August 21, 2025, by researcher Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3437, down 53 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3506, up 48; JD09 closed at 2879, down 121 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread was -69, down 101; the 05 - 09 spread was 627, up 169; the 09 - 01 spread was -558, down 68 [3] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, down 0.02; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, up 0.02; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.30, down 0.04 [3] - The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, up 0.02; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.94, down 0.02 [3] Spot Market - The main producing area average price was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.04; the main selling area average price was 3.39 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.25 [3][8] Profit Calculation - The profit per bird was 3.82 yuan, down 2.50 from the previous day [3] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.25; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04; the price of egg - laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [3] - The average price of corn was 2382 yuan, down 3; the average price of bean meal was 3124 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.60 yuan, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The national mainstream egg price remained stable today, with some regions showing price stability and others slight fluctuations [6] - In July, the national laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase [7] - In July, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying hen inventory is 1.356 billion, 1.360 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week [7] - The average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/bird, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply - side pressure is still obvious, with the laying hen inventory at a high level in the same period over the years, and the cold - stored eggs stored in the market are flowing out, putting pressure on the market price. The short - term bearish logic holds without large - scale over - culling [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting at high prices [10] - Arbitrage: Short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [10] - Options: Sell call options [10]