银河期货油脂日报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of oils and fats is weak and a callback is expected, but the callback range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the callback to go long at low prices. YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the callback. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][10][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: For soybeans, the 2601 closing price is 8394 with a decrease of 20. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8574, 8694, and 8494 respectively, and the basis in these regions is 300, 180, and 100. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price is 9500 with a decrease of 54. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9480, 9480, and 9630 respectively, and the basis is - 20, - 20, and 130. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price is 9791 with a decrease of 37. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9901, 9841, and the basis is 110 and 50 [3] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybeans is 294 with an increase of 4; for palm oil, it is 296 with a decrease of 10; for rapeseed oil, it is 161 with an increase of 16 [3] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1106 with an increase of 34; the OI - Y spread is 1397 with a decrease of 17; the OI - P spread is 291 with an increase of 17; the oil - meal ratio is 2.70 with an increase of 0.03 [3] - Import Profits: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for September shipment is 1129, and the disk profit is - 216. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for September shipment is 1040, and the disk profit is - 485 [3] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 33rd week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 114.3 million tons, the palm oil inventory is 61.7 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory is 66 million tons [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From August 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5] - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): Palm oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. As of August 15, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil increased by 1.75 million tons to 61.73 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.92%. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. There was a reported purchase of one ship. The short - term palm oil may experience a callback. Soybean oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. The actual soybean crushing volume last week was 233.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 65.75%. As of August 15, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 0.50 million tons to 114.27 million tons, with a growth rate of 0.44%. The short - term soybean oil will be more resistant to decline. Rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 4.48 million tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 66 million tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. There was a reported cancellation of near - month rapeseed contracts. The short - term rapeseed oil will maintain a large - range shock [5][6][10] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term, expect oils and fats to have weak upward momentum and experience a callback, but the callback range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the callback to go long at low prices [12] - Arbitrage: YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the callback [12] - Options: On the sidelines [13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts such as the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils [16][19]