A股VS美股：“跑赢”行情的来龙与去脉

Group 1: A-Share vs. U.S. Market Performance - A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks, with a relative excess return exceeding 15% since mid-2025, marking the highest level since 2015[1] - A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks in approximately 41% of the months since the 1990s, with A-shares rising while U.S. stocks fell in about 18.5% of those months[11] - The probability of A-shares outperforming U.S. stocks increases when both markets rise, with A-shares winning approximately 54% of the time in such scenarios[11] Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Valuation changes (PE) have a more significant impact on A-share performance compared to earnings growth (EPS), indicating that valuation plays a dominant role in A-share price movements[16] - Key sectors that tend to perform well during A-share outperformance include machinery, finance, military, and computer industries, with cyclical industries like metals and coal performing well during economic recoveries[19] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - A-share outperformance typically begins with rapid price increases driven by monetary policy shifts, fiscal improvements, and external risk releases[23] - The current A-share rally is expected to continue, supported by domestic policy adjustments and a focus on enhancing market attractiveness and stability[27] - Future scenarios for continued outperformance include either a joint market adjustment with U.S. stocks declining more significantly or sustained upward momentum in A-shares[28] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include domestic economic growth and policy implementation falling short of expectations, potential global economic slowdown due to tariff impacts, and heightened geopolitical tensions leading to increased asset price volatility[29]