银河期货白糖日报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: With Brazil reaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to start accumulating. Brazil's recent bi - weekly sugar production was over 3.6 million tons, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio reached a record high of 54.1%. Although the Brazilian sugar price is at a relatively low level with limited downward space, the external sugar price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress [11]. - Domestic sugar market: The production and sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and the sugar inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. Since the domestic sugar price is greatly affected by the international sugar price, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of external sugar [11]. - Trading strategies: In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar trend for single - side trading; for arbitrage and option trading, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures market: SR09 closed at 5,729 with a rise of 2 (0.03%), trading volume of 6,910 (a decrease of 115), and an open interest of 22,426 (a decrease of 3,502); SR01 closed at 5,688 with a rise of 12 (0.21%), trading volume of 154,901 (an increase of 1,519), and an open interest of 358,685 (an increase of 14,946); SR05 closed at 5,646 with a rise of 13 (0.23%), trading volume of 5,618 (an increase of 146), and an open interest of 27,768 (an increase of 1,151) [5]. - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions remained unchanged today, with the price in Liuzhou at 6,030 yuan/ton, Kunming at 5,905 yuan/ton, Wuhan at 6,230 yuan/ton, Nanning at 5,970 yuan/ton, Bayuquan at 6,175 yuan/ton, Rizhao at 6,050 yuan/ton, and Xi'an at 6,370 yuan/ton. The corresponding basis was 301, 176, 501, 241, 446, 321, and 641 respectively [5]. - Monthly spreads: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 42 with a rise of 1; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 83 with a decrease of 11; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 41 with a decrease of 10 [5]. - Import profit: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 16.58, a premium of (0.10), and a freight of 39.00, the in - quota price was 4,510 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,745 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 285 yuan/ton, the spread with Rizhao was 305 yuan/ton, and the spread with the futures market was - 16 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 16.58, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,627 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,768 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 262 yuan/ton, the spread with Rizhao was 282 yuan/ton, and the spread with the futures market was - 39 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Judgment - Important news: - According to SCA Brasil, about 60% of the sugar - crushing season in the central - southern region has been completed. The expected sugar - cane crushing volume for this season is 590.4 million tons, a decrease of about 5% compared to the 621.9 million tons in the 2024 - 2025 season. The decline in agricultural sugar - extraction rate and significant loss of raw - material quality are the main reasons. The expected sugar - cane yield per unit area is 74.7 tons, a decrease of 4.8% compared to the previous season, and the sugar - cane sugar content (ATR) will drop by 5% to 136.1 kg per ton, the worst performance in recent seasons [7]. - From January to July 2025, China imported 164,200 tons of syrup under item 17029011, with 68,500 tons from Malaysia, 39,900 tons from Thailand, and 26,000 tons from Vietnam. Under item 21069061, 93,900 tons of syrup were imported, of which 91,100 tons were from Thailand. Under item 17029012, 88,600 tons of premixed powder were imported, with 74,500 tons from Vietnam, 9,400 tons from Thailand, and 1,300 tons from Malaysia. Under item 21069062, 265,100 tons of premixed powder were imported, of which 261,400 tons were from Thailand [8][10]. - On the 21st, in Guangxi, the intermediate - trader platform quotation in Nanning was 6,010 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan), and the warehouse quotation was 5,970 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Liuzhou, the intermediate - trader platform quotation was 6,030 yuan/ton, and the warehouse quotation was 5,980 - 6,000 yuan/ton (unchanged). In Guangdong, the intermediate - trader quotation for Zhanjiang sugar in Guangzhou was 6,080 yuan/ton (unchanged) [10]. - Logical analysis: As mentioned above, the international sugar market is affected by Brazil's supply, and the domestic sugar market is influenced by both domestic inventory and international prices [11]. - Trading strategies: As mentioned above, including single - side trading, arbitrage, and option trading strategies [12][13][14]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, showing data such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales - to - production ratios of domestic sugar, spot prices in Liuzhou, spot price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and spreads of sugar futures [15][21][25][26][29][31].