银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250821

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute [1][24][33][44][52] - Researchers: Che Hongyun, Wang Luchen CFA [2] Group 2: Market Review - Precious Metals Market: London gold slightly retraced last night's gains, trading around $3339; London silver had narrow fluctuations, trading around $37.8. Driven by the overseas market, the main Shanghai gold futures contract rose 0.3% to 775.12 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose 0.63% to 9162 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar Index: The dollar index moved sideways, trading around 98.26 [4] - US Treasury Yield: The 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, trading around 4.3% [5] - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB continued its strong trend against the US dollar, trading around 7.177 [6] Group 3: Important Information - Trump Administration Move: Trump's camp officials called for an investigation into Fed Governor Cook over mortgage transactions, and Trump demanded Cook's resignation, while Cook refused [7] - Fed July Meeting Minutes: Many participants said the current interest rate is not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep rates unchanged. "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said it reinforced existing information [7] - Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 81.9%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 45.5% [7] - Geopolitical Conflict: Israel decided not to respond to Hamas' ceasefire proposal for the time being [8] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market is waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday to verify the bet on a September rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in US PPI and resilient retail data, there are concerns that Powell may take a hawkish stance, so trading sentiment is cautious [10] - Impact on Precious Metals: Trump's demand for Cook's resignation has interfered with the Fed's independence, weakening the dollar and giving precious metals a chance to rebound. In the future, the risk of the US entering "stagflation" due to tariffs will support precious metals, and they are expected to remain range-bound at high levels [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [12] - Options: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [13] Group 6: Data Reference - Dollar Index and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between the dollar index and London gold/silver [15][17] - Real Yield and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between real yields and London gold/silver [21][23] - Domestic and Overseas Futures: Charts show the relationship between domestic and overseas gold/silver futures [22] - Futures and Spot: Charts show the relationship between futures and spot prices of gold/silver [25] - Domestic and Overseas Price Differences: Charts show the price differences between domestic and overseas gold/silver [32] - Gold-Silver Ratio: Charts show the gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [38][40] - ETF Holdings: Charts show the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [42] - Futures Open Interest: Charts show the open interest of gold/silver futures [45][46] - Futures Inventory: Charts show the inventory of Shanghai gold/silver futures [47][48] - Trading Volume: Charts show the trading volume of Shanghai gold/silver futures [50][51] - TD Data: Charts show the deferred fees and delivery volumes of gold/silver TD [53][54][58] - Treasury Yields and Break-Even Inflation: Charts show the relationship between Treasury yields and break-even inflation rates [55]