格林大华期货早盘提示-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend. China strengthens its domestic circulation, with a 7.2% export growth in July, and the Sino - US reciprocal tariffs are extended by 90 days. The US may restart interest - rate cuts in September, and the European economy is expected to grow due to Germany's 30% military expansion. Global hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks on a large scale [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Tian Tai Robot Co., Ltd. and its strategic partners signed the world's largest single - order of 10,000 embodied intelligent humanoid robots, marking the first step towards "large - scale commercial use" in the global humanoid robot industry [1]. - In July, OpenAI's monthly revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time. Due to the release of GPT - 5 and new subscription services, there is a huge demand for computing power, leading to a $500 - billion investment in building the "Stargate" computing platform [1]. - The world is entering a new "fiscal - dominated" paradigm, where central bank independence is challenged by government debt expansion and rising financing costs. There are warnings of a "debt death spiral" and potential long - term inflation [1]. - Concerns about a "second wave" of inflation are rising in the US due to factors like M2 reaching a 5% peak and high PPI. The Fed's cautious attitude is crucial [1]. - The Japanese bond market is being sold off, with 10 - year bond yields reaching a 2008 high and long - term bond yields approaching multi - decade highs. New fiscal stimulus may increase bond issuance [1]. - Trump's tariff policy aims to reduce the US trade deficit and promote the return of the manufacturing industry. Future tariffs may focus on industries under the 232 clause, with measures like raising existing tariff rates and expanding the scope of investigations [1]. Global Economic Logic - China is strengthening its domestic circulation by providing loan subsidies for personal consumption and service - sector business entities. China's exports grew by 7.2% in July, and the Sino - US reciprocal tariffs are extended by 90 days [1]. - The US Bureau of Statistics significantly revised down non - farm payroll data, which is seen as a move to pave the way for the Fed to restart interest - rate cuts in September. The market expects a 50 - basis - point cut in September and accelerated cuts in 2026 [1]. - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times, and Germany's 30% military expansion is expected to drive European economic growth [1]. - Goldman Sachs believes that China's humanoid robot industry is iterating products at an astonishing speed, and global hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks on a large scale [1].