Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials remain cautious about rate cuts, while the next Fed Chair candidate calls for significant rate cuts. The US August S&P Global Composite PMI hits an 8 - month high, reducing market expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar index and a decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's July economic data slows down across the board and falls short of expectations. Chinese Premier indicates measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real - estate market, increasing policy stimulus expectations. The extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days reduces short - term tariff uncertainties and boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks: stocks are expected to be strong in the short - term, with a cautious long - position recommendation; bonds may experience a high - level correction, suggesting cautious observation; various commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious observation recommended for most [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Global situation: Fed officials' views on rate cuts diverge. The US August S&P Global Composite PMI is at an 8 - month high, reducing expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, causing the US dollar index to rise and global risk appetite to decline. China's July economic data is weaker than expected, but policy measures are expected to boost consumption and the real - estate market. The extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days reduces short - term tariff uncertainties and increases domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks are expected to be strong in the short - term, with a cautious long - position recommendation; bonds may experience a high - level correction, suggesting cautious observation; commodities in different sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious observation recommended for most [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, oil and gas, and internet e - commerce, the domestic stock market continues to rise. Despite weak July economic data, policy measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real - estate market, along with the extension of the China - US tariff truce, increase domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force is strengthening, and it is recommended to be cautious with long - positions in the short - term [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals showed a divergent trend. Disagreements among Fed officials increase, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September drops to 75%. US economic data shows mixed signals, with the US dollar strengthening and suppressing the upward movement of precious metals. Investors are focusing on the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Powell's speech [4]. Black Metals - Steel: On Thursday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, but trading volume was low. The approaching Jackson Hole Symposium weakens rate - cut expectations. Real - world demand remains weak, with steel inventories rising by 25.07 tons this week, mainly due to an increase in rebar inventories. Supply shows mixed trends, with building material production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 9.65 tons. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [5][6]. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Steel mill profits are high, and last week's pig iron production increased slightly. However, with the approaching of important events in early September, production restrictions may be tightened. Steel mills mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Supply is increasing, with global iron ore shipments rising by 359.9 tons and arrivals rising by 94.7 tons this week. Iron ore prices may weaken in the later stage [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices fluctuated within a range. Manufacturers' production enthusiasm is high, with an increase in production capacity utilization and daily output. Iron alloy prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7]. - Soda Ash: On Thursday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is increasing, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged, with new production capacity expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand is weak, and profits are decreasing. Soda ash prices are likely to fall [8]. - Glass: On Thursday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply shows little change, with daily melting volume decreasing slightly. Demand from the real - estate sector remains weak, and profits are decreasing. Glass prices follow the real - world logic [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The eurozone and German August manufacturing PMI are better than expected. The approaching Jackson Hole Symposium increases rate - cut expectations, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and a slowdown in the US economy may limit the upside of copper prices. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [9]. - Aluminum: On Thursday, aluminum prices rose slightly and then fell back. Aluminum inventories decreased by 1.1 tons, but domestic social inventories have increased by nearly 15 tons. LME aluminum inventories have increased and then stabilized. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with limited upward space [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some recycling plants. Demand is in the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [10]. - Tin: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly to 59.23%. The supply of tin ore is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, with a decline in downstream orders. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with limited upside [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: On Thursday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 0.17%. Industry profits are improving, and production enthusiasm is high. The contract is in a key hedging pressure range, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. - Industrial Silicon: On Thursday, the main industrial silicon contract rose by 3.66%. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - Polysilicon: On Thursday, the main polysilicon contract rose by 1.28%. Spot prices increased, and silicon wafer prices also rose. The government is taking measures to regulate the industry, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The US may double tariffs on India to punish its purchase of Russian oil, causing oil prices to rise slightly. The US is promoting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Global oil inventories are low, and the market is waiting for post - peak - season demand verification [13]. - Asphalt: The adjustment of refinery capacity may reduce asphalt supply slightly. The futures market rebounds following crude oil, and spot prices are slightly warmer. However, inventories are not significantly reduced, and asphalt prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [13]. - PX: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity supports PX prices. PX supply is tight in the short - term, and prices are expected to fluctuate [14]. - PTA: A Huizhou plant's maintenance reduces supply pressure in September. Downstream demand recovers, and PTA prices are supported, but the upside is limited by crude oil prices and terminal orders [14]. - Ethylene Glycol: The polyester sector recovers, and new capacity is restricted. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and supply may increase slightly. Attention should be paid to post - September terminal orders [15]. - Short - Fiber: The sector rebounds, driving up short - fiber prices. Terminal orders increase seasonally, but more significant inventory reduction depends on further improvement in terminal orders [16][17]. - Methanol: Some methanol plants restart, and inland demand increases. However, port inventories rise due to imports and olefin plant maintenance. The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and weakly volatile in the medium - term [17]. - PP: Supply pressure increases with rising production capacity, and downstream demand increases slightly. With policy support, prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the 09 contract, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season inventory replenishment [18]. - LLDPE: Supply pressure remains high, and demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and inventory replenishment and policy implementation [18]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: CBOT November soybeans rose by 1.83%. The Pro Farmer crop tour results will be released on Friday, and there are concerns about crop diseases. US soybean export sales show a mixed picture, with a decrease in current - year sales and an increase in next - year sales [19]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Customs inspections of soybeans may cause short - term disruptions to some oil mills. US soybean production prospects and export sales may affect soybean meal prices, which may be dragged down [19]. - Soybean, Rapeseed, and Palm Oil: CBOT soybean oil futures rose due to improved export sales. Domestic soybean oil costs are expected to be strong, with high short - term inventories. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to shrink. Palm oil prices rose, driven by US soybean oil prices and low Indonesian inventories [19][20]. - Corn: The national corn price is slightly weak, with low trading activity. Downstream inventories increase, and there are concerns about government grain auctions. Corn prices may be weak in the short - term, but the probability of breaking last year's price range is low [20]. - Hogs: Spot prices stabilize, and the weight of hogs decreases. Second - fattening activities increase slightly, but the overall scale is limited. Market sentiment for the fourth quarter is pessimistic [21].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250822
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-08-22 00:48