Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is on a stable and slightly rising trend, but the upward momentum is questionable due to the global surplus of protein raw materials. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, with potential de - stocking in September. Suggest buying at low - cost intervals and paying attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and Sino - US tariff developments [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the upward trend of the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong, with a potential increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate upward [7][9]. - The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high spot import profits [11][12]. - Short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. Although the USDA report is positive and Sino - US tariff policies are favorable, the downstream consumption is average and the destocking speed has slowed down [14][15]. - Egg prices may fluctuate in the short term, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound as the supply is large and the price performance in the peak season is weak [17][18]. - The pig price may oscillate in a range. In the short term, consider buying at low prices, in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, and for far - month contracts, use the reverse spread strategy [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - Important Information: On Thursday night, US soybeans closed higher. The third - day result of the PROFARMER tour showed an increasing yield per unit. The US Soybean Association called for an agreement between Trump and China. The weekly sales report showed that the new US soybean sales exceeded expectations. The Brazilian premium slightly decreased, and the soybean import cost was stable. There were rumors of domestic soybean meal reserves release, causing the futures price to fall. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable, with general trading and good提货. The downstream inventory days decreased slightly to 8.35 days. Last week, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 2.4043 million tons are expected to be crushed. The US soybean - producing areas are expected to have less rainfall in the next two weeks. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - Trading Strategy: The soybean import cost is rising slightly and stably. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected to start de - stocking in September. It is recommended to buy at low - cost intervals and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and Sino - US tariff developments [4]. Oil - Important Information: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. The first 15 - day exports are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3%, and the first 20 - day exports are expected to increase by 13.61% - 17.5%. From August 1 - 15, the palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51%, and the production increased by 0.88%. The first 20 - day production is expected to increase by 0.3%. India purchased rapeseed oil for the first time in five years. As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons, with exports of 3.61 million tons and production of 5.29 million tons in June [6]. - Trading Strategy: The US biodiesel policy draft, the limited production potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expected Indonesian B50 policy support the oil price center. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production is at a medium level, the origin inventory may remain stable, supporting the origin price. There is an expected increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. Sugar - Important Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose. The closing price of the January contract was 5,688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants increased slightly. The SCA Brasil estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in this season will be 590.4 million tons, a decrease of about 5% compared to the 2024/25 season, and the sugar content per ton will decrease by 5% [11]. - Trading Strategy: Internationally, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly since July, and the new season in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries such as India is expected to have increased production. Domestically, imports will increase in the next two months, and the spot import profit outside the quota is at a five - year high. The Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - Important Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased. As of August 17, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 55%, up two percentage points from the previous week and 13 percentage points higher than the same period last year. India suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30 [14]. - Trading Strategy: The USDA report was more positive than expected, and the suspension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs for 90 days is favorable for domestic cotton prices. However, the downstream consumption is average, the开机率 is at a low level, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. Short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level [15]. Egg - Important Information: The national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price in the main producing areas decreased by 0.03 yuan to 3.16 yuan/jin. The egg supply is sufficient, the market demand is average, and today's egg price may be stable or decline [17]. - Trading Strategy: The supply of newly - laid eggs is increasing, and the number of culled hens is limited, resulting in a large supply. The egg price performance in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the near - month contracts are particularly weak. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [18]. Pig - Important Information: The domestic pig price was mixed. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 13.71 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.57 yuan/kg. The downstream demand is weak, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened, and the farmers' slaughter volume may increase, so the pig price may be stable or decline today [20]. - Trading Strategy: The spot price has temporarily stabilized due to previous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment. The futures price has risen and then fallen. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. In the short term, consider buying at low prices, in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, and for far - month contracts, use the reverse spread strategy [21].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250822
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-22 01:00