中原期货晨会纪要-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market sentiment has significantly recovered, and the medium - term outlook is positive, with foreign institutions accelerating their entry and layout in the A - share market [9]. - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, and the proportion of new energy has significantly increased [9]. - The EU and the US have reached a new trade agreement, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods, and the EU making corresponding commitments [10]. - A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan will be launched, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On August 22, 2025, among chemical products, styrene had the largest increase with a growth rate of 1.180%, while pulp had the largest decrease with a decline rate of 0.702% [6]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - On August 22, 2025, among agricultural products, yellow soybean No. 2 had the largest increase with a growth rate of 2.495%, while yellow soybean No. 1 had a decrease of 0.10% [6]. 3.3 Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: The Brazilian new crushing season's output decline supports the price, but domestic processed sugar arrivals pressure the spot price. It is recommended to short at high near the 5700 resistance level, with support at 5650 [13]. - Corn: New grain listing and imports suppress the market, but improved deep - processing profits provide potential support. It is advisable to wait and see, with strong support at 2150 yuan/ton [13]. - Pigs: The spot price is stable with a slight increase, but the futures market is bearish [13]. - Eggs: The egg market has a divergence between the spot and futures. It is recommended to short on rebounds and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [13]. - Cotton: The international cotton market has sufficient supply, and the domestic new flower listing may put pressure on the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see due to limited spot demand recovery [13][15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The market price is slightly down, with inventory accumulating. The market may continue high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders and export policies [14]. - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to rise steadily in the short term, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach [14]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply recovery of coking coal is slow, and the seventh round of coke price increase is not yet implemented. The prices are expected to fluctuate slightly downward [14]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price continues to fluctuate and consolidate due to lack of new macro - drivers. The aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment, waiting for demand in the peak season [14][16]. - Alumina: The supply is increasing, and the price is weak. The 2601 contract is running weakly, and attention should be paid to bauxite supply disruptions [16]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand changes during the peak season and supply disruptions [16]. - Ferroalloys: The black - series decline has slowed down. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and caution is needed for speculation [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is recommended to take a small - position long - position, paying attention to the 80,000 yuan support and 85,000 yuan resistance [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: On August 21, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility [19]. - Stock Indexes: The A - share market shows a high - low rotation of funds. It is recommended to maintain the view of a bull market and look for low - buying opportunities in IF, IM, and IC during short - term adjustments [19][20].