宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250822

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a weak - stable supply - demand pattern, and the ore price is in a state of shock adjustment. The short - term and intraday trends of iron ore 2601 are weakly oscillating, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line [1]. - The ore demand remains high with certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the shrinking steel mill profits and continuous production restrictions weaken the positive effects. Meanwhile, the supply has returned to a high level, causing the ore fundamentals to deteriorate and the over - valued ore price to face continuous pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content - Market Trend Judgment - The short - term trend of iron ore 2601 is weakly oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic being the weak - stable supply - demand pattern and the shock adjustment of the ore price [1]. - Market Driving Logic - Demand side: Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore is running smoothly at a high level, showing good demand resilience. However, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restrictions are constantly disturbing, weakening the positive effects [2]. - Supply side: Port arrivals have rebounded as expected, and miners' shipments have increased significantly to the highest level of the year. Overseas ore supply has increased significantly, while domestic ore supply is running in a weak - stable state. Overall, the ore supply has rebounded as expected [2].