宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For gold, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas market risk appetite has declined, recent US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices, but the strengthening US dollar index is negative. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and strengthening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. However, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: Yesterday, the gold price moved sideways [3]. - Driving Factors: Overseas market risk appetite has declined, US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices. The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, which is negative for gold prices. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index in the short - term [3]. - Outlook: Short - term, the gold price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. Copper - Price Movement: Last night, Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - Driving Factors: Macroscopically, overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. Industrially, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [5]. - Outlook: As the peak season approaches and inventory decreases at a low level, the basis and calendar spread may continue to strengthen. The futures price should pay attention to the pressure at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5].