工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has declined and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and the hedging pressure above the disk, but the bullish sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and it is expected that the silicon price will remain in high-level consolidation. For industrial silicon, continuous attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises; for polysilicon, continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of macro sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.92% to 8,635 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, the power cost has decreased, and the enterprise start-up has steadily recovered. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some incremental demand; in the organic silicon sector, a large factory stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and the supply tightened temporarily. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, the market supply pressure has increased, and the price may be under pressure again; silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Inventory - On August 21, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 117,000 tons, remaining flat from last week, and the social delivery warehouse was 426,000 tons (including the part not registered as warehouse receipts and spot), a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [1] Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N-type dense material rose 4.35% to 48 yuan/kg; the price of N-type re-feeding material rose 4.26% to 49 yuan/kg; the price of N-type mixed material rose 4.44% to 47 yuan/kg; the price of N-type granular silicon rose 3.37% to 46 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.67% to 51,530 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After the increase and decrease offset each other, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and will increase to about 130,000 tons in August. On the demand side, according to the current latest polysilicon price calculation, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum; some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened; the terminal's acceptance of high prices is low, and the overseas component export tax refund stocking is basically completed, and the component continues to weaken [1] Organic Silicon Import and Export - In July 2025, China's export volume of primary polysiloxanes in the organic silicon sector was 46,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.64% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.01%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume of primary polysiloxanes was 325,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%. In July 2025, the import volume was 8,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.44% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.53%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 56,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.96% [1] Price Information - The price of DMC remained flat at 11,000 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained flat at 11,750 yuan/ton, and the price of silicone oil fell 0.75% to 13,150 yuan/ton [1]