金信期货日刊-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA futures 2601 has risen in the past two days, and its future trend needs to be judged by considering multiple factors. It may maintain a slightly bullish and volatile short - term trend, with potential for further increase if demand improves; otherwise, it faces downward risks due to supply pressure in the medium term [3][4]. - For the stock market, the overall trend of the three major A - share indices is high - level volatile and upward [7]. - Gold is favored as the July non - farm payroll data indicates a lower - than - expected US economy, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, and its weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient with short - term platform consolidation [11]. - Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range volatile adjustment, with strong fundamental support but weakening market sentiment [14][15]. - Glass 09 has fallen 30 points back to 952. If its price stabilizes, the price of glass 2601 will also stabilize, and low - buying can be considered if it stabilizes [18]. - Palm oil should be treated with a slightly bearish and volatile view as the oil market has large cumulative gains, with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Supply: In August, there were concentrated short - term shutdowns and planned overhauls of facilities, reducing the operating rate to a monthly low and tightening supply. However, new facility production expectations and load recovery suppress the processing fee repair space, and medium - term supply pressure remains [4]. - Demand: Polyester load slightly increased to 89.4%, inventory pressure eased, and restocking demand in the manufacturing sector supported prices, but the sustainability of terminal textile orders remains to be seen [4]. - Cost: Crude oil fluctuations weakened valuation guidance, while PX provided weak support to PTA due to expected supply - demand pattern improvement [4]. - Technical and Market Sentiment: PTA2601 broke through the 20 - day line on the daily chart in the short term, and there is a bullish sentiment among some investors as the chemical product market shows signs of recovery [4]. Stock Market - The three major A - share indices opened higher and closed lower today, rising during the session and then falling back, with a small rebound at the end of the session, closing with a doji star. The overall trend is high - level volatile and upward [7][8]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. This increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in short - term platform consolidation [11]. Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, providing strong fundamental support. However, market sentiment has weakened recently, leading to a collective correction in the black - series commodities [14][15]. - Technical: It continues to adjust today, and is treated as a high - level wide - range volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the support level near the lower important support [14]. Glass - Price Movement: Glass 09 fell 30 points back to 952. If its price stabilizes, the price of glass 2601 will also stabilize [18]. - Technical: Attention should be paid to the lower important support level, and low - buying can be considered if it stabilizes [18]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The oil market has had large cumulative gains recently. With rising overall inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the market's motivation to chase higher prices has declined, and the pressure for profit - taking has increased. It should be treated with a slightly bearish and volatile view [21].