宁证期货今日早评-20250822

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding report industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities, including gold, crude oil, iron ore, etc. It analyzes the impact of different factors such as trade agreements, production plans, and policy regulations on commodity prices and market trends [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The US - EU trade agreement is favorable to the US and negative for the euro, causing the US dollar index to rise. Gold has a short - term rebound demand and may fluctuate upward, but the dollar - gold seesaw effect should be monitored. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting on Friday may increase precious metal volatility [1]. Crude Oil - Iraq plans to increase daily oil production to nearly 6 million barrels by 2028, and India will continue to buy Russian oil. There is a situation of weak expectations against the reality of non - accumulated inventory. It is advisable to wait and see at the current position [1]. Iron Ore - In August, the iron ore fundamentals have few contradictions. High iron - water production provides strong demand support. The ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased. The demand side has some support from high iron - water production, but attention should be paid to temporary production - restriction policies. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Rebar - The fundamentals of steel are weak, but due to environmental protection policies and policy expectations, the probability of a sharp decline in rebar prices is low. Short - term long positions can be considered in the 3000 - 3100 area, and caution is needed when pre - laying long positions in the far - month contracts [4]. Live Pigs - The national average pig - grain ratio has fallen below 6:1, triggering a third - level warning. The state will conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases, which can boost the pig price in the short term. Short - term long positions can be tried, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil inventory is at a low level, and the consumption peak season is approaching. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term [6]. Soybeans - The 2025/26 global soybean production forecast has been slightly increased. The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the domestic soybean price is expected to remain weakly stable in the short term [8]. Silver - The US economic data shows resilience, and the US - EU agreement boosts risk appetite. The silver price is expected to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The upcoming large - scale policy - based financial instruments may increase stock market investment and have a negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to show more volatility, and short positions can be considered for long - term bonds at key resistance levels [9]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is sufficient as the Southeast Asian production season approaches, and the demand is weak. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. PTA - Jiangsu's policy draft signals a solution to over - capacity. For PTA, the proportion of 1 million - ton/year devices is low, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the short term, but caution is needed at high levels [11].