宝城期货动力煤早报-20250822

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The domestic thermal coal price is expected to remain strong as the coal market sentiment is optimistic and the temperature will still be high in mid - and late August [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark [4]. - As of August 14, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.3636 billion tons, with a significant weekly de - stocking of 118,300 tons, and 118,200 tons lower than the same period last year [4]. Supply - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. - Since August, affected by factors such as rainfall in major producing areas, over - production inspections, and coal mine shutdowns for maintenance, the thermal coal output has not recovered significantly, and the growth of origin supply has been slow [4]. Demand - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 409,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,700 tons; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 251,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,500 tons [4]. - The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, the temperatures in most parts of East China, Central China, and the northeast of Southwest China will be significantly higher [4]. - The hydropower substitution effect may still be limited as precipitation in northwestern Yunnan and western Sichuan is 20% - 50% less [4].