Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - In the base metals market, aluminum shows signs of downstream consumption recovery and is recommended to buy on dips; alumina is expected to be weak and range-bound, and those holding spot can sell call options opportunistically; zinc is recommended to sell on rallies; lead is recommended for range trading; silicon is expected to trade sideways and it's advisable to wait and see; lithium carbonate has intense long - short battles and it's recommended to wait and see; polycrystalline silicon is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and one can try to go long on dips [2][3]. - In the black industry, for rebar, it's recommended to wait and see; for iron ore, it's mainly recommended to wait and see; for coking coal, it's recommended to hold previous short positions [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybean meal is expected to follow the international cost side and fluctuate strongly; corn futures are expected to be weak; cotton is recommended to buy on dips; palm oil is still bullish but difficult to trade; eggs futures are expected to be weak; for live pigs, it's recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical market, for PVC, rubber, glass, and soda ash, it's recommended to wait and see; for caustic soda, it's recommended to go long [8][9]. Summary by Directory Base Metals - Aluminum: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.27% to 20,565 yuan/ton. The operating capacity increased slightly, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate rose slightly. With downstream consumption showing signs of recovery, it's recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Alumina: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.73% to 3,147 yuan/ton. The operating capacity continued to increase. With strong supply pressure, it's expected to be weak and range - bound, and those holding spot can sell call options opportunistically [2]. - Zinc: The closing price of the zinc 2509 contract decreased by 0.11% to 22,260 yuan/ton. Supply increased significantly, and it's in the consumption off - season. It's recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - Lead: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract increased by 0.12% to 16,745 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and the consumption peak season was disappointing. It's recommended for range trading [2]. - Silicon: The overall furnace - opening rate was 35.3%, and social inventory decreased slightly. Demand on the margin improved. It's expected to trade sideways and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract LC2511 rose 2.2% to 82,760 yuan/ton. Supply and demand may turn tight in August - October. With intense long - short battles, it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan. Policy news may cause fluctuations, and one can try to go long on dips [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main 2510 contract closed at 3,122 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Supply and demand were relatively balanced but structurally differentiated. It's recommended to wait and see, with the RB10 reference range of 3,100 - 3,170 yuan [4]. - Iron Ore: The main 2601 contract closed at 773 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. Supply and demand were neutral - strong but weakening at the margin. It's mainly recommended to wait and see, with the I09 reference range of 740 - 790 yuan [4][5]. - Coking Coal: The main 2601 contract closed at 1,148.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton. Supply and demand were relatively loose but improving. It's recommended to hold previous short positions, with the JM01 reference range of 1,120 - 1,180 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Market - Soybean Meal: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. Near - term US soybean production decreased, and it's expected to follow the international cost side and fluctuate strongly. Later, pay attention to yield per unit and tariff policies [6]. - Corn: The 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price fell. Due to substitution and increased supply, the spot price is expected to be weak [6]. - Cotton: Overnight US cotton futures were weak. Domestic cotton exports increased. It's recommended to buy on dips, with a range - trading strategy of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6]. - Palm Oil: The main contract continued to correct. Supply and demand were both increasing, and it's still bullish but difficult to trade. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - Eggs: The 2510 contract was weak, and the spot price was stable. Supply was sufficient, and demand was weak. Futures prices are expected to be weak [7]. - Live Pigs: The 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. Supply was sufficient, and it's recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to policies and consumption during certain periods [7]. Energy and Chemical Market - PVC: The V01 contract rose 0.8% to 5,014 yuan. Supply will increase, demand is average, and inventory has accumulated. The driving force is unclear, and it's recommended to wait and see [8]. - Rubber: The RU2601 contract rose 0.74% to 15,720 yuan/ton. Downstream operating rates increased, and the raw material support weakened slightly. It's recommended to buy on dips after a correction [8]. - Glass: The FG01 contract closed flat at 1,164 yuan. Supply and demand were weak, and the downside space was limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. - Soda Ash: The sa01 contract rose 0.3% to 1,315 yuan. Supply is in the high - production season, and inventory is high. The downside space is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see [9]. - Caustic Soda: The sh01 contract rose 2% to 2,741 yuan. Supply and demand are healthy, and it's recommended to go long [9].
招商期货商品期货早班车-20250822
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-08-22 01:31