国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250822

Report Overview - Date: August 22, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - Nickel is expected to operate in a low - level range; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality; lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations with weekly inventory reduction; industrial silicon should be watched for its upward potential as market news spreads; and attention should be paid to this week's meeting information for polysilicon [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,830 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,795 yuan, down 25 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 90,715 lots, an increase of 27,039 lots, while the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume was 99,736 lots, a decrease of 50,000 lots [5] - Macro and Industry News: There are various events including potential nickel export suspension from Canada, new nickel - iron production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesian mining policies, production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks, steel mill overhauls in Shandong, and the Indonesian president's crackdown on illegal mining [5][6][7][8][9] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan. The trading volume was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots, and the open interest was 65,157 lots, a decrease of 11,043 lots [12] - Macro and Industry News: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped; weekly production and inventory decreased. SQM adjusted its sales target and was optimistic about price recovery, and Sigma Lithium's production and cost data were reported [13][14] - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral view [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,635 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the PS2511 contract of polysilicon closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan. There are also detailed data on trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory [15] - Macro and Industry News: The project of Qidong Hongjun Heterojunction Battery and Component (Phase I) was publicly announced for acceptance, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan and an annual production capacity of 2GW of HJT double - sided double - glass components [15][17] - Trend Intensity: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [17]