国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black series futures, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The views on these commodities are as follows: - Iron ore: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal: All are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9][13][16]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of futures contract I2601 was 772.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.46%. The import and domestic spot prices mostly increased. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [6]. - News: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [6]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For rebar contract RB2510, the closing price was 3,121 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2510, the closing price was 3,375 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.44%. Spot prices in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also varied [9]. - News: On August 21, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed that the production of rebar decreased by 5.8 tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased by 9.65 tons. In July 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production year - on - year [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed small changes. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased, and the manganese ore price also decreased slightly. The price spreads had different changes [13]. - News: On August 21, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon in various regions decreased, and the prices of silicomanganese also decreased. The export and import data of silicomanganese in July 2025 were also provided [14]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of coking coal contract JM2601 was 1147 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan or 1.3%. The closing price of coke contract J2601 was 1664 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan or 0.8%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads changed [16]. - News: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [17]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [18]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The prices of different log contracts showed small fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were stable [20]. - News: In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [22]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].