五矿期货贵金属日报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data released last night showed resilience, and Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts were relatively hawkish. However, it is still necessary to focus on the main line that the Fed is about to enter a new round of interest rate cut cycles [2]. - Multiple Fed officials have made hawkish statements on interest rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that based on current data, the Fed will not cut interest rates in September; Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year; Kansas Fed President Schmidt said that the current inflation risk is greater than the risk in the labor market [3]. - The US Department of Justice officials wrote to Powell, stating their plan to investigate Fed Governor Cook and urging Powell to remove Cook from the council. At 10 pm tonight, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting. The market has already priced in his hawkish remarks, but if his statement on monetary policy shows a marginal and slight loosening, it will significantly benefit the prices of gold and silver. Strategically, it is still recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9031 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Precious Metals Prices: Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.01% to 776.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.81% to 9233.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.02% to 3382.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.06% to 38.06 US dollars/ounce [2]. - Other Market Indicators: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.33%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.60 [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - Employment Data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was 235,000, higher than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 224,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in August was - 0.3, lower than the expected 7 and the previous value of 15.9 [2]. - PMI Data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, significantly higher than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in August was 55.4, higher than the expected 54.2 [2]. 3.3 Fed Officials' Statements - Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that based on current data, the Fed will not cut interest rates in September [3]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year [3]. - Kansas Fed President Schmidt said that the current inflation risk is greater than the risk in the labor market [3]. 3.4 Market Strategy - It is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9031 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.5 Data Tables and Graphs - Gold and Silver Key Data Summary: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventories of COMEX gold and silver, LBMA gold and silver, and SHFE gold and silver, as well as their daily changes and historical quantiles [7]. - Price and Volume Graphs: There are multiple graphs showing the relationship between the prices and trading volumes of COMEX gold and silver, Shanghai gold and silver, as well as the relationship between gold prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. [9][11][13] - Near - and Far - Month Structure Graphs: Graphs show the near - and far - month price structures of COMEX gold and silver, Shanghai gold and silver, and the price differences between different markets [19][21][33][40] - ETF and Net Long Position Graphs: Graphs show the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs and the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds [42][48][49] - Internal - and External - Spread Graphs: Graphs show the internal - and external - spreads of gold and silver and their moving averages and seasonal patterns [52][53][54]