Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. In the short - term, some markets may experience volatility, while in the long - term, the direction depends on various factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and macro - economic conditions. For example, in the capital market, it is generally a good idea to buy on dips; in the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - run but may fluctuate in the short - term; in the commodity market, different commodities have different outlooks based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals [3][5]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes a 500 billion "quasi - fiscal" tool for emerging industries and infrastructure, central frozen pork reserve purchases, US - EU tariff policies, and EU's purchase of US energy products. After continuous recent increases, the market may experience increased short - term volatility, but the general strategy is to buy on dips [2][3]. - The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided, showing different levels of premium or discount [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different degrees of increase. The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of treasury bonds in Hong Kong on August 27, and the 20 - year Japanese treasury bond yield reached a new high on August 21. The central bank conducted a net injection of 12.43 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Thursday [4]. - Fundamentally, the economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, but the PMI in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - run. Recently, due to the good stock market, the bond market may return to a wide - range oscillation pattern [5]. Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, US 10 - year treasury bond yield, and US dollar index are presented. The US economic data shows resilience, and Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are hawkish, but the Fed is expected to enter a new interest rate cut cycle [6]. - Multiple Fed officials have made hawkish statements on interest rate cuts. Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. The market has priced in his hawkish remarks, and a slight loosening of his stance will be beneficial to gold and silver prices. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts provided [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Before the Fed Chairman's speech, the market was cautious, but copper prices rebounded due to the US - EU tariff framework and positive manufacturing PMI data. LME inventory was flat, and domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper provided [9][10]. Aluminum - The US - EU trade framework agreement improved market sentiment, and aluminum prices rose. Domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the market consumption sentiment improved marginally. The price is expected to be supported and may continue to be strong if the Fed Chairman's speech is dovish, with reference price ranges for domestic and LME aluminum provided [11]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Zinc ore inventory decreased, but zinc concentrate TC was rising. Domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased, and downstream consumption was weak. Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [12]. Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore inventory was tight, and processing fees were declining. Primary lead production increased, while secondary lead production decreased. Demand was weak, and lead prices are expected to be weak [13][14]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly volatile. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices were flat. There was a slight shortage of MHP supply. Nickel prices may have callback pressure in the short - term but are supported in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on significant dips, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel provided [15]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply was restricted by slow复产 in Myanmar and transportation issues, and demand was weak in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to oscillate, with reference price ranges for domestic and LME tin provided [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate index decreased, but the futures contract price increased. Supply decreased, and inventory decreased slightly. The short - term support level of lithium prices has moved up, and attention should be paid to imports and industry news, with a reference price range for the futures contract provided [17]. Alumina - The alumina index decreased. The import window was closed, and futures inventory increased. Due to supply disturbances, the downward space of futures prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range for the main contract provided [18]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell. The decline was due to low - price selling by arbitrage institutions, and downstream demand was weak. However, steel mills intend to support prices, and stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and cost support is strong, but upward resistance is large due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. Rebar production decreased, demand was weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil demand increased, production grew rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose. Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased, and steel mill iron production was stable. Port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and iron ore prices may continue to adjust in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices decreased, and inventory pressure increased. Soda ash prices were stable, and inventory increased. In the short - term, glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, glass prices depend on policy and demand, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side policies and market sentiment [27][28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices oscillated slightly. Manganese silicon prices broke through the support level, and ferrosilicon prices are approaching the support line. It is recommended for investment positions to wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices rose. Supply may increase due to higher开工 rates, and demand can provide some support. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices fell. Supply increased, and inventory decreased slowly. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipts on prices [33][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU prices oscillated weakly after a decline. Bulls expect price increases based on seasonal and demand factors, while bears are concerned about weak demand and uncertain macro - expectations. It is recommended to wait and see, and partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 position is advised [38][42][43]. Crude Oil - WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures prices rose. Singapore's oil product inventory data shows mixed trends. Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, oil prices are undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [44]. Methanol - Methanol futures prices rose slightly. Coal prices increased, increasing methanol production costs, but coal - based profits are still high. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak currently but may improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Urea futures prices fell. Domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is average. Current prices are weak, but the downside is limited due to low corporate profits. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [46]. Styrene - Styrene prices rose. Market sentiment is good, and cost support exists. BZN spread is low and may repair. Supply is increasing, and demand is rising at the end of the off - season. Prices are expected to rise with cost [47][48]. PVC - PVC prices fell. Production increased, demand decreased, and inventory increased. The company's profit is high, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply increased, and demand recovered slightly. Inventory decreased slightly, but it is expected to increase in the medium - term. Valuation is high, and prices may decline [50]. PTA - PTA prices rose. Supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and demand improved. Inventory decreased, and processing fees are expected to repair. It is recommended to buy on dips following PX [51][52]. p - Xylene - PX prices rose. PX production is high, and downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. PX inventory is expected to be low, and valuation has support but limited upside. It is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil [53]. Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices rose. Market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance, and cost support exists. Inventory is decreasing from a high level, and demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Prices are expected to oscillate upward [54]. Polypropylene (PP) - PP prices fell. Supply may increase as refinery profits recover, and demand is weak. Inventory is still under pressure, and it is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55][57]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog prices were mixed. Downstream demand is weak, and supply may increase. In the short - term, it is recommended to buy on dips, pay attention to medium - term pressure, and use reverse - spread strategies for far - month contracts [59]. Eggs - Egg prices were mixed. Supply is abundant, and demand is average. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds [60]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices rose. US soybean production may increase, and domestic soybean meal supply is seasonally excessive. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to supply and demand factors [61][64]. Oils and Fats - Domestic oil prices rebounded. US biodiesel policy, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support oil prices. Palm oil is expected to be stable in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter [65][67]. Sugar - Sugar prices rose. Brazilian sugar production may decrease, and international sugar prices may not rebound significantly. Domestic sugar imports are expected to increase, and prices may decline [68][70]. Cotton - Cotton prices oscillated. The USDA report is positive, and the suspension of import tariffs in India is beneficial. However, downstream consumption is average, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [71].
五矿期货文字早评-20250822
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-22 01:29