中辉期货热卷早报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - Iron ore: Short-term participation [1][7][8] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1][11][12] - Coking coal: Cautiously bullish [1][15][16] - Manganese silicon: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] - Silicon iron: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: After continuous decline, there may be a short-term rebound. Rebar has high production enthusiasm but weak demand, and supply-demand may loosen. Hot-rolled coil has a relatively stable fundamentals with a loosening supply-demand trend [1][3][4] - Iron ore: The industrial fundamentals are weak, and the ore price fluctuates weakly. The supply is increasing, and it waits for a new downward window [1][6][7] - Coke: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Spot starts the seventh round of price increase, but may face steel mill games. Supply-demand is balanced, and there may be a short-term rebound [1][9][11] - Coking coal: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase. There is a downward repair space in the medium term and a short-term rebound possibility [1][13][15] - Ferroalloys: Fundamentals are weak, and prices run weakly. Manganese silicon has short-term demand resilience but high inventory. Silicon iron has increasing production, falling demand, and high supply pressure [1][17][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Rebar: High furnace and electric furnace profits, high iron water production, weak demand, lower-than-expected production restrictions, supply-demand loosening, possible short-term rebound due to policy [1][4][5] - Hot-rolled coil: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, limited impact of production restrictions, downward price with limited short-term downside, possible short-term rebound [1][4][5] Iron ore - Price data: Futures prices for different contracts are provided, along with spot prices, spreads, and freight rates [6] - Fundamentals: Increasing iron water production, insufficient environmental protection restrictions, end of steel mill restocking, port inventory accumulation, and a weakening supply-demand situation [7] Coke - Price and inventory data: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data are given [10] - Fundamentals: Spot price increase, improved coke enterprise profits, balanced supply-demand, stable production and inventory, possible short-term rebound [11] Coking coal - Price and inventory data: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [14] - Fundamentals: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, high iron water production, stable demand, medium-term downward repair space, short-term rebound possibility [15] Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon: Loosening fundamentals, short-term demand resilience, high inventory, increased manganese ore shipments, stable port inventory, possible short-term rebound, medium-term sell-on-rally strategy [19][20] - Silicon iron: Increasing production, falling demand, high supply pressure, possible short-term rebound after over - decline, short - selling participation [19][20]