新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-22）-20250822

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Downward [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Pulp: Consolidating [5] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bullishly [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating bullishly [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bullishly [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [5] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Viewpoints - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and market expectations deviate, leading to market corrections. The fundamentals of various commodities have different characteristics, and their prices are expected to show different trends. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures and hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments and arrivals have increased, but there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port clearance. Terminal demand is weak, and steel mills have limited motivation to cut production actively. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The trading limit of the main coking coal futures contract has been adjusted, and demand is weak, resulting in a high-level adjustment. The recovery of coal mines is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 is high. The short-term adjustment range is limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the sentiment in the black sector is released [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: The production cut policy in Tangshan is clear, but the production cut is less than expected. Demand is weak, and the overall supply-demand contradiction in the steel market intensifies. The spot demand for rebar is still weak, and the futures price will adjust downward to find support [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment has cooled, and the replenishment demand has weakened. The supply-demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory is accumulating. The long-term demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2]. - Soda ash: The spot is weak in the short term, and the futures price has broken through the support level. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The performance of different stock indexes varies, and there is capital inflow and outflow in different sectors. The market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][3]. - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates fluctuate, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold light long positions [3]. - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors such as currency, finance, and risk aversion affect the price. The short-term market is waiting for the development of the situation, and the price is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3]. Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price is weak, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is in the off-season. The supply-demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [5]. - Logs: The port inventory is decreasing, the cost support is strengthening, and the supply pressure is not significant. The demand for processing plants is expected to increase, and the price is expected to range-bound oscillate [5]. Oil and Fat Sector - Oilseeds and oils: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are affected by factors such as export sales and production, and they are expected to oscillate bullishly. The supply and demand of soybean meal are balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply-demand gap in the natural rubber market has narrowed, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [9]. - PTA and related products: The prices of PTA and related products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply and demand, and costs, and their trends vary [9].