锰硅月报：锰硅震荡运行-20250822

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the price of manganese-silicon will continue its downward trend in a volatile manner, influenced by the cooling of optimistic sentiment in the commodity market and the adjustment of coking coal and coke prices. With the operating logic returning to the industrial side, the supply remains high while the demand has potential concerns, and the cost advantage is weakening. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price Performance - Since mid-August, the futures and spot prices of manganese-silicon have weakened. The main futures price dropped from a high of 6,262 yuan/ton to around 5,800 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of over 7%. The spot price also declined, with the basis strengthening [2]. Factors Affecting Price Decline - Market sentiment has shifted. The "anti-involution" trading logic has cooled down, and the leading varieties in the previous period have adjusted at high levels. The weak real - estate data and slowing infrastructure investment in July's domestic macro - data have exacerbated the shift in market sentiment. Additionally, the cost side has loosened, as the futures price of coke has fallen by over 9.7% since mid - August [3]. Supply Situation - The supply of manganese-silicon has increased significantly. As of the week ending August 15, the operating rate of 187 independent silicon-manganese enterprises was 45.75%, and the daily output was 29,580 tons, reaching a new high this year. The production in main producing areas is active, and the output in Ningxia and Yunnan has also reached new highs. However, producers are in a loss situation, which may limit the increase in future output [4]. Demand Situation - The demand for manganese-silicon is currently acceptable. Steel mills are actively replenishing stocks, and the production of steel mills is stable. As of the week ending August 15, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills were 83.59% and 90.22% respectively, and the weekly demand for manganese-silicon was 125,400 tons, showing a four - week consecutive increase. However, the decline in finished product prices has squeezed the profits of short - process steel mills, which may drag down the demand for manganese-silicon [5].