渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.22）-20250822

Market Overview - Major indices experienced gains in the past five trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.85% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.09% [3] - The average daily trading volume reached 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 516.14 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [3] - All major sectors saw positive performance, particularly the comprehensive, communication, and computer industries, while banking, construction decoration, and coal industries lagged behind [3] Investment Data - From January to July, fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year, a marginal decline of 1.2 percentage points [4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 3.2%, down 1.4 percentage points from June [4] - Manufacturing investment rose by 6.2%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from June, while real estate investment fell by 12.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from June [4] Consumption Data - Social retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year from January to July, with a notable drop of 0.2 percentage points from June [4] - In July, the monthly retail sales growth was 3.7%, significantly impacted by demand front-loading due to the trade-in policy and continuity issues in July [4] Policy Insights - On August 18, Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to consolidate and expand the economic recovery during the State Council's ninth plenary meeting, focusing on strengthening domestic circulation [4] - The meeting highlighted the removal of restrictive measures in the consumption sector and the importance of major projects in driving investment [4] - Measures to stabilize the real estate market were also discussed, with attention on urban renewal and supporting improvement demands [4] Strategy Recommendations - The upcoming mid-year report period may introduce volatility in market performance, but ongoing "anti-involution" reforms have mitigated fundamental risks [5] - The primary market concern remains the continuation of incremental liquidity, which has fostered a positive feedback loop in market performance and valuation [5] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as TMT, pharmaceuticals, and defense, driven by AI trends and military trade catalysts [5] - Non-bank financial sectors are expected to benefit from the stabilizing capital market, while resource sectors may see opportunities due to capacity management initiatives [5]