国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, trading strategies, and fundamental data for each product. It assesses the market conditions of different commodities based on supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and seasonal factors, and provides corresponding trading suggestions [2]. 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Trend is strong, with a recommendation to go long on dips and focus on the 11 - 1 positive spread. PTA device outages drive PX up, and with the recovery of polyester demand in the peak season, the raw material price - increasing ability is strong [9]. - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong. Pay attention to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spread. The unexpected outage of the PTA device leads to a significant de - stocking in the balance sheet from August to September, and the supply - demand turns to a tight - balance pattern [10]. - MEG: Trend is strong, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be exited. The basis remains high, and the spot supply is tight. However, there is obvious upward pressure in the future [10]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to trade in a range. The natural rubber market has mixed factors, with supply affected by rainy weather and inventory changes affecting market sentiment [12][15]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to trade in a range. In the short - term, the increase in butadiene arrivals weakens the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, while in the medium - term, the market is reluctant to short at low valuations [16][18]. Asphalt - Asphalt shows a neutral trend. Although crude oil is slightly stronger, the cracking spread is weaker. The domestic asphalt production, shipment, and capacity utilization have different changes [19][34]. LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to trade in a range. Affected by the anti - involution sentiment in the short - term, the supply and demand situation is complex, with supply affected by maintenance and demand gradually improving [36][37]. PP - PP trend is weak, but be cautious about shorting at low levels. The cost side is weak, and the demand side lacks obvious highlights, while the supply pressure increases, but there are uncertainties in the cost side [40][41]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda should be treated bullishly. Driven by the expanding demand, especially from the alumina industry, and supported by exports, although there are some supply - side limitations [44][46]. Pulp - Pulp is expected to trade in a range. The import pulp price fluctuates, affected by the game between external price increases and weak demand, as well as supply - demand imbalances [52][55]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price shows a slight decline, and the spot price has minor fluctuations [56][57]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to trade in a range. The port inventory accumulates, and the price is under pressure in the short - term, while in the medium - term, the market is reluctant to short at low valuations [59][61]. Urea - Urea is still trading in a range, but the upward pressure is gradually increasing. The enterprise inventory increases, and the market is affected by export expectations and policy factors [63][65]. Styrene - Styrene is expected to compress profits and trade in a range. The downstream is in the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, but the inventory is at a relatively high level, and the short - term volatility is stable [66][67]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The market is weakly stable and oscillating, with the production of alkali plants fluctuating slightly and the downstream demand remaining stable [68][70]. Propylene - Propylene supply - demand tightens, and the price is supported. The relevant industrial data shows certain changes, and the market is affected by factors such as device maintenance [74][80]. PVC - PVC is expected to have short - term oscillations, but the trend still faces pressure. The supply side maintains high - level operation, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates [82]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil shows an oscillating trend, with a short - term strengthening. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weakly consolidating, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounds slightly [85]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Hold the 10 short positions as appropriate. The index shows a downward trend, and the freight rates of relevant routes also have different changes [87].