中泰期货晨会纪要-20250822

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace since the end of June, and foreign - owned A - share market value has increased by 8% compared to the end of 2024 [7]. - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, and the proportion of new energy has significantly increased [7]. - The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods, and the EU making corresponding commitments and procurement plans [7]. - A new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be launched, targeting emerging industries and infrastructure [8]. - The national average pig - grain ratio has fallen below 6:1, and the central government will conduct frozen pork reserve purchases [8]. - DeepSeek - V3.1 is officially released with new features and an increased API interface call price [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a new high since June, and the number of continued jobless claims reached the highest level since November 2021 [9]. - US existing - home sales in July increased by 2% year - on - year, and the median price increased by 0.2% year - on - year [9]. - The eurozone's August PMI preliminary value rose above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Long - term strategy: Consider buying on dips. Global hedge funds are actively buying Chinese stocks, and the market is expected to be stable with policy support [11]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Short - term: Volatility is the main trend. Medium - term: The curve - steepening strategy can still be held. After the tax period, funds are looser, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious [12]. 3.2 Black (Steel and Ore) - Policy: The tone is becoming more moderate, and the policy is neutral to slightly negative for the market [13]. - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to remain strong, and the medium - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel mill profits are at a certain level, and iron ore production is expected to remain high [13]. - Cost and profit: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, with the valuation between valley - electricity and flat - electricity costs [13]. 3.3 Coal and Coke - Short - term: Prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and trading should be cautious. The market is affected by production inspections and steel mill production [15]. - Future: The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also factors that may put pressure on prices, such as the possible decline in steel mill iron - water production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [15]. 3.4 Ferroalloys - Market outlook: After a sharp decline in the double - silicon futures, the pressure has been partially relieved. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take profits on dips if there is a sharp decline. Focus on structural trading opportunities [16]. 3.5 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Supply is expected to continue to increase, and the inventory of the delivery warehouse is increasing, with potential delivery pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - Glass: Inventory is increasing, and the spot market atmosphere has declined. It is recommended to wait and see for now [18]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.6.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The spot price is firm, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [20]. - Alumina: The supply is in excess, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [20]. 3.6.2 Lithium Carbonate - Prices will mainly fluctuate widely around a reasonable valuation. The price may first rise and then fall, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [21]. 3.6.3 Industrial Silicon - The downward adjustment space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The key factor is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [22]. 3.6.4 Polysilicon - Policy progress dominates the price fluctuation. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is difficult to have a deep decline [23]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Cotton - Long - term: Short on rallies. Short - term: Wait and see. The market is affected by factors such as low downstream demand and potential future production increases [26]. 3.7.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar inventory is low, but the expected increase in processed sugar may restrict prices. Pay attention to the short - covering opportunity during the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays [29]. 3.7.3 Eggs - The supply pressure is high, and the futures price is correcting the premium. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips and be cautious about bottom - fishing [32]. 3.7.4 Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The price of early - maturing apples is high, and the inventory apple price is relatively stable [35]. 3.7.5 Corn - Short the 01 contract on rallies or use a 11 - 1 positive spread strategy. The market sentiment is bearish, and both supply and demand are under pressure [36]. 3.7.6 Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates widely [37]. 3.7.7 Pigs - For near - month contracts, be cautious and short. Consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy. The supply is under pressure, and the short - term consumption improvement is limited [38]. 3.8 Energy and Chemicals 3.8.1 Crude Oil - In the long term, it is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern. Consider shorting on rallies. Pay attention to factors such as US - Russia negotiations and OPEC+ quota adjustments [38]. 3.8.2 Fuel Oil - The oil price has no main - line logic and is expected to fluctuate between 63 - 70 dollars. The fuel oil price will follow the oil price [40]. 3.8.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly. However, the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity may drive up the price. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see [41]. 3.8.4 Rubber - The short - term fundamentals have no obvious contradictions. Short - term long positions can be considered on dips with a stop - loss, and be cautious about chasing high prices [42]. 3.8.5 Methanol - The port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see due to the impact of the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity [43]. 3.8.6 Caustic Soda - The spot price is strong, and the futures price is affected by strong reality and strong expectations. A long - position strategy is recommended [44]. 3.8.7 Asphalt - The oil price has no main - line logic, and the asphalt price will follow the oil price. The asphalt market is in a seasonal off - season and is gradually turning to the peak season [44]. 3.8.8 Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to try long positions on dips. The cost is strong, and the supply and demand are expected to improve [45]. 3.8.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price is expected to fluctuate downward, and the medium - term trend is weaker than that of crude oil. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. 3.8.10 Urea - The domestic demand is weak, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view. Pay attention to export changes [47]. 3.8.11 Synthetic Rubber - The short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly. Short - term long positions can be considered on dips with a stop - loss [48].