国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The exemption volume of US biodiesel may fall short of expectations, leading to an increase in international oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: Consolidating at high levels [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans rose significantly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][11]. - Soybean: Rebounding and fluctuating [2][11]. - Corn: Weakening [2][14]. - Sugar: Trading in a range [2][17]. - Cotton: Futures prices fluctuating narrowly, waiting for new drivers [2][22]. - Eggs: Pay attention to the rhythm of culling laying hens [2][26]. - Pigs: Wait for the spot market to confirm at the end of the month [2][28]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil and soybean oil futures prices showed different trends in the day - and night - sessions. For example, the palm oil main contract closed at 9,436 yuan/ton during the day session with a decline of 0.53%, and 9,596 yuan/ton at night with an increase of 1.70%. Spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also had corresponding changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons by the end of June. The US is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemptions. Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20, 2025 increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean and soybean meal futures prices had different performances. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions also had corresponding changes, and the trading volume and inventory of soybean meal showed certain trends [11]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 21, CBOT soybeans rose due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The US soybean crop is growing well, and the new - season soybean sales exceeded expectations [11][13]. Corn - Fundamental Data: Corn futures prices showed a downward trend, and important spot prices such as the Jinzhou closing price decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Trading volume and open interest also changed [14]. - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn collection port prices remained stable, while prices in the Northeast and North China showed a weakening trend [15]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The original sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound, and the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton. The futures main contract price was 5,688 yuan/ton [17]. - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall has decreased. China's sugar imports in July increased by 320,000 tons [17]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: Cotton futures prices fluctuated slightly, and spot prices in different regions such as the North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton decreased slightly. Trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding changes [22]. - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading remained weak, and the cotton textile market was generally sluggish. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, and the US cotton weekly export sales data was average [23]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg futures prices declined, and the basis and spot prices in different regions showed certain trends [26]. - No specific macro and industry news provided for eggs in the text. Pigs - Fundamental Data: Pig futures and spot prices had different changes, and the basis and spreads also showed corresponding trends [30]. - Market Logic: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increased, while demand growth was limited. The market is waiting for government procurement to boost sentiment, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in the long - term price center [32]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: Peanut futures prices declined slightly, and important spot prices remained stable. Trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding changes [34]. - Spot Market Focus: New peanuts are gradually being listed, with the supply in Henan being acceptable. The prices of white - sand peanuts are slightly weak, while the prices of large peanuts are stable. New peanuts in Jilin are expected to be listed around mid - to late September [35].