融达期货生猪日报-20250822

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a shock adjustment [4]. - Based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to some extent [4]. - If farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On August 21, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.76 yuan/kg, a daily increase of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.15%. The prices in Henan and Sichuan were 13.71 yuan/kg and 13.57 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan down 0.09 yuan/kg or -0.65% and Sichuan unchanged [6]. - Among futures prices, the 09 - contract increased by 10 yuan/ton or 0.07%, while the 01, 03, 05, 07, and 11 - contracts decreased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton, with a decline of -0.04% to -0.07% [6]. - The main - contract basis in Henan was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton or -320% compared to the previous day [6]. Market Dynamics - On August 21, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main live - pig contract (LH2511) reduced its position by 741 lots today, with a position of approximately 69,900 lots. The highest price was 13,815 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,725 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,765 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that current weight reduction is beneficial for the future, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the short - side thinks, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season for live pigs in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is a shock adjustment, and the core logic is based on supply and demand factors and price - difference trends. It is recommended to wait and see for the 11 - contract [4].