LPG：宏观情绪溢价支撑，进口成本预期上涨，丙烯：供需收紧，价格存支撑

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The supply and demand of propylene are tightening, and the price is supported [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Price: PG2509 closed at 3,900 yesterday with a 0.26% daily increase and 3,907 in the night session with a 0.18% increase; PG2510 closed at 4,393 yesterday with a 0.90% daily increase and 4,405 in the night session with a 0.27% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,472 yesterday with a 0.40% daily increase and 6,488 in the night session with a 0.25% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,522 yesterday with a 0.45% daily increase and remained unchanged in the night session [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For PG2509, the trading volume was 18,614 yesterday, a decrease of 19,171 from the previous day, and the open interest was 35,231, a decrease of 7,294; for PG2510, the trading volume was 99,068, an increase of 627, and the open interest was 104,935, an increase of 181; for PL2601, the trading volume was 2,524, an increase of 414, and the open interest was 4,586, an increase of 352; for PL2602, the trading volume was 23, a decrease of 2, and the open interest was 849, a decrease of 4 [2] - Price Spread: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 600 yesterday, compared with 610 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 680, unchanged; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was -2, compared with -56 the day before; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -47, compared with -21 the day before; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -97, compared with -71 the day before [2] - Key Industrial Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 75.7%, down from 76.3% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, up slightly from 63.4%; the alkylation operating rate was 48.2%, down from 49.0% [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and that of propylene is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [8] Market Information - On August 21, 2025, the September CP paper cargo price of propane was 520 US dollars per ton, up 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day, and the butane price was 496 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the October CP paper cargo price of propane was 536 US dollars per ton, up 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [10] - Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plan: Multiple companies have PDH plant maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Jineng Chemical (Qingdao) Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on August 19, 2025, and ending in October 2025 [11] - Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plan: Many LPG plants have maintenance plans, including Shengli Oilfield in Shandong starting a full - plant maintenance on June 16, 2025, with an expected end in late August 2025; Fushun Petrochemical in Liaoning starting a full - plant maintenance on August 15, 2025, and ending in early October 2025 [11]