Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The international palm oil price may rise due to the potential disappointment in the US biofuel exemption volume, while the soybean oil price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,436 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.53% change and 9,596 yuan/ton at night with a 1.70% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,422 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.24% change and 8,470 yuan/ton at night with a 0.57% change; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,878 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.23% change and 9,888 yuan/ton at night with a 0.10% change. Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,462 ringgit/ton during the day session with a -0.78% change and 4,530 ringgit/ton at night with a 1.57% change. CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 53.77 cents/pound with a 4.51% change [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 58,090 lots with a decrease of 21,471 lots and an open interest of 72,258 lots with a decrease of 25,308 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 48,524 lots with a decrease of 49,415 lots and an open interest of 86,598 lots with a decrease of 24,464 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 20,132 lots with a decrease of 3,487 lots and an open interest of 34,597 lots with a decrease of 4,020 lots [1]. - Spot Prices: Palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong was priced at 9,620 yuan/ton with a 110 yuan change; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,640 yuan/ton with a 30 yuan change; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 9,850 yuan/ton with a 20 yuan change. Malaysian palm oil FOB was priced at 1,110 dollars/ton with no change [1]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 184 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 218 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -28 yuan/ton [1]. - Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 291 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was -1,106 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was -64 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 28 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 87 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons at the end of June, despite increased production and accelerated exports. Its palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons in June, a 35.4% month - on - month increase driven by surging demand from major buyers such as China and India [2]. - The Trump administration is expected to rule on a large number of small refinery biofuel exemption applications as early as this Friday but will delay the decision on whether to require large refineries to make up for some of the exempted quotas. The EPA will rule on 195 outstanding small refinery exemption applications dating back to 2016 on Friday, with a "mixed bag" of results including partial rejections [5]. - From August 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5]. - India purchased a batch of rapeseed oil to be delivered in August for the first time in nearly five years due to the high domestic rapeseed oil price [5]. - The IGC's latest monthly report shows that the global soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been slightly increased to 430 million tons (year - on - year +1%), and the trade volume forecast has been raised by 1 million tons compared with the July report, reaching a record high (year - on - year +2%) [6]. - The USDA's latest drought report shows that as of the week ending August 19, about 9% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 3% and 7% last year), about 5% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 4% and 6% last year), and about 22% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 5% and 21% last year) [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 0 [7].
棕榈油:美国生柴豁免量恐不及预期,国际油脂上涨,豆油:高位震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-22 02:00