棉花：期价窄幅波动等待新的驱动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The cotton futures price is fluctuating in a narrow range and waiting for new drivers. The domestic cotton spot trading is still weak, the cotton yarn market is generally trading, and the full - cotton grey fabric market has not improved significantly. The ICE cotton futures are also fluctuating narrowly, affected by the strong dollar and general export sales data [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - Closing prices: CF2601 closed at 14,030 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18% and a night - session price of 14045 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase; CY2511 closed at 20,060 yuan/ton with a 0.02% decline and a night - session price of 20110 yuan/ton with a 0.25% increase; ICE cotton 12 closed at 67.47 cents/pound with a 0.09% decline [1]. - Trading volume and open interest: CF2601 had a trading volume of 198,093 lots, a decrease of 180,332 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 733,904 lots, a decrease of 4,203 lots; CY2511 had a trading volume of 5,701 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 22,074 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse receipts: Zhengzhou cotton had 7,335 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 120, and 188 valid forecasts, a decrease of 61; cotton yarn had 69 warehouse receipts with no change and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 69 [1]. - Spot Data: - Domestic spot prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,963 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price in Shandong was 15,208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Hebei, it was 15,204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; the 3128B index was 15,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [1]. - International price: The international cotton index M was 75.13 cents/pound, an increase of 0.07% [1]. - Yarn prices: The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,700 yuan/ton with no change; the arrival price was 22,035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [1]. - Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading is still weak, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The spot basis is stable. The sales basis of some 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang hand - picked and machine - picked cottons is in a certain range [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is generally average, and spinning mills are mainly selling at reasonable prices. The price of C40S has increased by 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the increase has slowed down in the past two days. The trading atmosphere in the full - cotton grey fabric market has not continued to improve, and the actual orders have not increased significantly [2]. - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The strong dollar put pressure on the price, and the weekly export sales data were average, failing to boost the price. As of August 14, the net sales of 2025/26 US cotton were 105,400 bales [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].