沥青：原油略强，裂解愈弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the asphalt market, including futures prices, spreads, spot market conditions, and industry trends. It shows that while the price of crude oil is slightly stronger, the cracking spread of asphalt is getting weaker. The market is influenced by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [1][9][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 on the previous day were 3,496 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.09% and 0.32%. The night - session closing prices were 3,500 yuan/ton and 3,468 yuan/ton, with night - session increases of 0.11% and 0.09% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of BU2509 was 7,439 lots, a decrease of 834 lots, and the open interest was 20,537 lots, a decrease of 3,225 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 was 123,366 lots, a decrease of 22,655 lots, and the open interest was 211,461 lots, a decrease of 6,077 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipts: The total warehouse receipts in the asphalt market were 72,650 lots, with no change [1] - Spreads: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread remained unchanged at 20; the East China - South China spread was 230 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Spot Market: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,720 yuan/ton, with no change. The refinery operating rate was 36.92%, an increase of 1.31% compared to the previous update, and the refinery inventory rate was 27.81%, an increase of 2.02% [1] 3.2 Market Information - Production: In September 2025, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries was 1.557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 275,000 tons (21.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 467,000 tons (42.9%) [15] - Shipment: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers was 391,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The shipment volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the Northwest region continued to decline [15] - Capacity Utilization: From August 14 - 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From August 13 - 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 17.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [15][16] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9]