Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that during a bull market, market corrections often occur within a short timeframe, and a 2-4 week minor pullback may present a smooth buying opportunity. It is suggested to consider chasing the previously strong sectors or switching to low-position sectors for a rebound [1][2][12] - Historical analysis of eight similar "first wave rise - platform pullback - second wave rise" intervals shows that the top 20% of sectors in the previous rise tend to experience the largest pullbacks and subsequently lead in the next rise [9][12] - The report emphasizes that sectors with negative excess returns during pullbacks are likely to struggle to regain positive excess returns afterward, indicating a potential "escape signal" for market tops [3][18] Group 2 - Currently, most secondary industries with continuous excess returns have not shown signs of weakening excess margins. Strong sectors include consumer electronics, which have maintained excess returns for 10 consecutive weeks, and others like general equipment and semiconductors [19][21] - Sectors that have shown signs of weakening excess margins include AI application games, military aviation equipment, and "anti-involution" sectors such as wind power and glass fiber [20][22] - The report identifies that certain sectors, even when experiencing relative weakness during minor bull market pullbacks, can still offer good odds for gains post-adjustment. These sectors are often cyclical and resource-based, which tend to have slower pricing logic compared to growth stocks [4][23][24]
牛市若出现小平台,如何应对?
Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-22 02:11