镍：低位震荡运行，不锈钢：预期与现实博弈，钢价震荡运行

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Nickel is expected to operate in a low - level oscillatory pattern [1]. - Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and realities [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 119,830, down 100 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,795, down 25 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 90,715, an increase of 27,039 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract was 99,736, a decrease of 50,000 from T - 1 [2]. - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel was 120,250, up 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 928, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 13,700, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per single line [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the whole park [3][4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to the 5% annual production reduction target, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. - The Indonesian President stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [6]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral view [7].