铜：等待美联储降息指引，波幅收窄

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The copper market is waiting for guidance from the Fed's interest rate cuts, with price fluctuations narrowing [1] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%, and the night - session closing price was 78,730, up 0.13%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,721, up 0.38%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 48,373, an increase of 24,847 compared to the previous day, and the position was 139,777, an increase of 1,819. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,574, a decrease of 718, and the position was 263,000, a decrease of 2,295. The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 25,223, a decrease of 275, and the inventory of LME Copper was 156,350, an increase of 1,200. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 6.88%, a decrease of 0.38% [1] - Spot Data: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,200, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous day. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was 190, a decrease of 5. The near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was 10, a decrease of 10. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first contract was 204. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was 171, an increase of 24. The spread between the Shanghai Copper consecutive - third contract and LME 3M was - 144, an increase of 35. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 944, a decrease of 106. The import profit and loss of recycled copper was - 1,287, a decrease of 467 [1] [Macro and Industry News] - Macro News: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, a Fed voter for next year said that there may be no interest rate cut in September, and this year's voters were hesitant about action. After that, the yield of the two - year US Treasury note was close to a three - week high. Fed Chair candidate Brad suggested aggressive action: a 100 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, with the first action in September. The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, unexpectedly reaching a new high in more than three years, and inflation pressure intensified [1] - Industry News: The oxygen - making equipment of the PT Smelting smelter malfunctioned, extending the originally scheduled four - week maintenance period. The smelter of the El Teniente copper mine of Codelco has restarted operation. Glencore has submitted an application to include two copper mine projects in Argentina with a total estimated capital expenditure of more than $13 billion in the Argentine government's investment incentive program. In July 2025, China's refined copper imports were 335,969.236 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in July 2025 were 2,560,072.316 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. Australia's Hillgrove Resources said that a new high - grade copper/gold resource was discovered in its Kanmantoo underground mine in South Australia, and early drilling indicated that there was a possibility of increasing the mine's metal resources in the near future [1][3] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]