Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, silver to decline slightly, and copper to await the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance with a narrowing trading range. Zinc is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, while lead's price is supported by inventory reduction. Tin and aluminum are predicted to trade within ranges, and alumina is expected to decline slightly. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel will operate in a low - level range, and stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - Price and Performance: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 776.08 with a night - session decline of 0.01%. Gold T + D closed at 771.66 with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session price was 772.50 with a 0.01% increase. Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3383.50 with a 0.26% decline, and London gold spot closed at 3338.25 with a 0.25% decline. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9162 with a 1.31% increase, and the night - session price was 9233.00 with a 0.81% increase. Silver T + D closed at 9144 with a 1.33% increase, and the night - session price was 9198 with a 0.72% increase. Comex Silver 2510 closed at 38.590 with a 0.55% increase, and London silver spot closed at 38.095 with a 0.51% increase [5]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 24,336, and the open interest decreased by 8,259 [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai gold remained at 36,642 kg, while Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 65,319. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 25,144 kg, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 347,707 [5]. - Spread and Arbitrage Cost: The spreads and arbitrage costs of gold and silver showed various changes. For instance, the spread between gold T + D and London gold decreased by 2.52, and the spread between silver T + D and London silver increased by 5,089 [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold's trend intensity is 1, and silver's is - 1 [8]. Copper - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,630 with a 0.30% decline, and the night - session price was 78,730 with a 0.13% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 9,721 with a 0.38% increase [10]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 24,847, and the open interest increased by 1,819. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 718, and the open interest decreased by 2,295 [10]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 275, and LME copper inventory increased by 1,200. The spreads between different copper contracts and the arbitrage costs also changed [10]. - News: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and a smelter's maintenance period was extended due to equipment failure. Codelco restarted a smelter, and Glencore applied to include copper projects in Argentina's investment incentive plan. China's refined copper and copper concentrate imports in July had different changes [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: Copper's trend intensity is 0 [12]. Zinc - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,240 with a 0.11% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2,786 with a 0.58% increase [13]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 26,050, and the open interest decreased by 568. The LME zinc trading volume decreased by 1,474, and the open interest increased by 574 [13]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai zinc inventory remained unchanged, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [13]. - News: The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and the labor - market cooling was more obvious [14]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc's trend intensity is 0 [15]. Lead - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,745 with a 0.12% increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 1,980.5 with a 0.33% increase [16]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 9,828, and the open interest decreased by 2,546. The LME lead trading volume decreased by 1,375, and the open interest decreased by 964 [16]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 1,481, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [16]. - News: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years [17]. - Trend Intensity: Lead's trend intensity is 0 [17]. Tin - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 266,480 with a 0.51% decline, and the night - session price was 266,840 with a 0.30% decline. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 33,475 with a 0.89% decline [20]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 27,750, and the open interest decreased by 633. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71, and LME tin inventory increased by 25. The spreads between different tin contracts also changed [20]. - News: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years. The euro - zone business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade - agreement framework [21]. - Trend Intensity: Tin's trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,590, and the LME aluminum 3M price closed at 2,593. The Shanghai alumina main - contract price was 3,124, and the cast - aluminum alloy main - contract price was 20,125. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [23]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes and open interests of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy contracts had various changes [23]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventories of aluminum, alumina, and related products, as well as the spreads between different contracts, showed different trends [23]. - News: A Fed official said that there might be no interest - rate cut in September [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy are all 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,830, and the stainless - steel main - contract price was 12,795. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [27]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes and open interests of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts had various changes [27]. - Industry - Chain Data: The prices and spreads of nickel - related products and stainless - steel products in the industry chain also changed [27]. - News: There were issues such as potential nickel - export suspension from Canada, a nickel - iron project in Indonesia entering the trial - production stage, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters [27][28][29]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [32].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250822
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-22 02:23