宝城期货原油早报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory - bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed slightly up 1.27% to 492.9 yuan/barrel on Thursday night and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Friday [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, even with increased production from OPEC+ countries. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the release of previous bearish sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed an oscillatory - bullish trend on Thursday night [5].