美国8月制造业和服务业PMI超预期反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economic data in August showed mixed results. The manufacturing and services PMIs rebounded unexpectedly, but the initial jobless claims increased more than expected. The inflation pressure rose, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products had different trends. For example, the price of动力煤was expected to be stable in the short - term, while the price of豆粕was affected by the US harvest and China's purchase policy [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, higher than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8. The services PMI and the composite PMI also showed good performance [12]. - The Fed's Hammack indicated that the FOMC might not cut interest rates in September. The gold price fluctuated and closed down. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price remained in a range - bound state [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The proportion of new energy increased significantly [15]. - A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan might be launched, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [16]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate long positions in various stock indexes evenly [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU took further measures to finalize the trade agreement, including plans to reduce US tariffs on European cars [19]. - The Atlanta Fed President still expected one interest rate cut this year and paid attention to the labor market [20]. - The US manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace since 2022, which supported the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to rebound in the short - term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The services PMI also performed well [23]. - The Fed's Collins said that if the labor market deteriorated, it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short - term. Hammack did not support an interest rate cut in September [24][25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction, as the fundamental data remains resilient [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 253 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on August 21, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan [27]. - Investment advice: If the short - term increase is high, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - hedging strategy [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of the week ending August 14, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations [29]. - The Pro Farmer field inspection indicated a potential bumper harvest of US soybeans. The market focused on whether China would resume purchasing US soybeans [30]. - Investment advice: The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the US field inspection results and China's purchase policy [30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indian importers started to buy palm oil from Colombia and Guatemala at a large discount [31]. - The Trump administration was expected to make a ruling on the exemption of small refineries [32]. - The palm oil export volume in Indonesia increased in June, and the inventory decreased slightly [33]. - Investment advice: After the adjustment, the US biodiesel policy might boost the price of the oil market. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to China's purchase of US soybeans [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main producing areas of red dates in Xinjiang were about to enter the sugar - increasing period. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 rose slightly [34][35]. - Investment advice: Due to the uncertainty of the new - season production, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and the pre - festival stocking in the main sales areas [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises were affected by equipment maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased slightly [36]. - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread was expected to strengthen when the new - season production was determined [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 250,700 tons week - on - week as of August 21. The rebar inventory increased significantly [38]. - Investment advice: The steel price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait for the market to correct [39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processed corn decreased, and the consumption also decreased [40]. - Investment advice: The 11 and 01 contracts of corn futures were expected to decline. Hold short positions and pay attention to the weather [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The total social electricity consumption in July increased by 8.6% year - on - year [42]. - Investment advice: The peak of the coal price was expected to have passed, and the price was expected to be stable in the short - term [43]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The import of recycled steel raw materials in July was 21,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.10% and a year - on - year increase of 20.03% [44]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In July, China's cotton product export volume increased, but the export value decreased [45]. - India temporarily exempted cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [46]. - The Indian Cotton Association expected that the cotton production in 2025/26 would increase despite the decrease in the planting area [47]. - Investment advice: Before the new cotton was listed in China, the supply was tight, which supported the price in the short - term. However, the price was expected to be under pressure in the fourth quarter [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Trump reiterated that the US would not approve new photovoltaic or wind power projects [50]. - Investment advice: The futures price of polysilicon had strong support at 49,000 yuan/ton. It was recommended to take a bullish view on pull - backs and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity [51][52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export volume of primary polysiloxane in July decreased [53]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $39.48/ton. The domestic lead inventory decreased slightly [55]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $9.33/ton. The domestic zinc inventory decreased [57]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Zulu lithium project in Africa made a major breakthrough [59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips and conduct positive arbitrage [60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Codelco in Chile lowered its 2025 copper production guidance [61]. - The S3 expansion project of First Quantum Minerals in Zambia was put into operation [62]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons on August 21 [64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On August 21, the closing price of CEA was 70.92 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of LPG in China increased, and the inventory decreased slightly [70][71]. - Investment advice: The PG price was expected to be strong in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. Trump's statement on not approving new wind and photovoltaic projects might affect the demand for natural gas [74]. - Investment advice: The Nymex natural gas price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of August 21, the inventory of urea at Chinese ports increased by 37,000 tons week - on - week [76]. - Investment advice: The urea price was expected to be in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the new Indian tender and domestic demand [76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - Two PTA plants in South China were planned to be shut down for maintenance [77]. - Investment advice: The PTA price was expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On August 21, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted locally [80]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price was expected to be strong, but it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the price [81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market continued to be weak [82]. - Investment advice: The pulp price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly stronger [86]. - Investment advice: The PVC price was expected to be weak in the short - term due to India's anti - dumping ruling [86]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - An East China styrene plant with a capacity of 320,000 tons/year was planned to be shut down for maintenance in September [87]. - Investment advice: The styrene price was expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand were expected to be balanced in September, but there was a risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories mostly increased [89]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new plant commissioning in late August and September [91]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of August 21, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers was 1.9108 million tons, with a 0.71% increase [92]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to short the soda ash price on rallies and pay attention to supply disruptions [92]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On August 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased [93]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of buying glass and shorting soda ash [94]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The global container ship order volume reached a record high, and the over - supply of shipping capacity was expected to last until 2029 [95]. - Investment advice: The container freight rate was expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [97].