乙二醇：政策对基本面影响较小，中期仍旧承压

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The impact of policies on the ethylene glycol industry is more emotional than substantial. In the medium term, as domestic and foreign operating rates increase, ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle, and its valuation will face pressure at high levels. In the short term, the recent low arrival volume and policy stimulus provide some support, and opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be considered after the arrival volume increases [1][10]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Anti - involution Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy to assess old petrochemical and chemical devices may ease over - capacity in the chemical industry, but for the ethylene glycol industry, the proportion of old devices is small. The operating devices over 20 years old have a capacity of 118.5 million tons, accounting for 4% of ethylene glycol capacity, and the devices mainly producing ethylene glycol account for only 2%. The impact on the industry with an operating rate of 60% - 70% is limited [4]. - The policy in Jiangsu Province to restrict ethylene glycol devices below 200,000 tons per year has little impact as only Sierbang's 40,000 - ton device in the province is affected [4]. South Korean Policy Impact - South Korea plans to cut 2.7 - 3.7 billion tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, accounting for about 25% of the total capacity. The ethylene glycol production capacity in South Korea is 1.41 billion tons, with only 425,000 tons of in - production devices mainly producing ethylene glycol, and the capacity utilization rate is 30%. - From January to July 2025, China imported 118,000 tons of ethylene glycol from South Korea, accounting for nearly 2.7% of the total imports, with an average monthly import of 17,000 tons. This import volume is easy to replace, and the impact on China's ethylene glycol supply and raw material end is small [5]. Policy Emotional Impact Greater than Substance, Medium - term Pattern Weak - Supply - side policies at home and abroad have little impact on the over - capacity problem of ethylene glycol, and there is still room for capacity utilization to increase. - In the downstream polyester industry, the proportion of old devices over 20 years old is 11.9%. If capacity clearance occurs, the negative impact on the demand side will be greater than the positive impact on the supply side. - In the medium term, if domestic and foreign devices restart smoothly, ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle even in the peak season. The valuation profit of naphtha - based devices is at a high level this year, facing compression pressure. - In the short term, the low arrival volume and policy stimulus support ethylene glycol, and short - selling on rallies should be considered after the arrival volume increases [10].