国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - Silver: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - Copper: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - Zinc: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - Lead: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - Tin: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - Nickel: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - LPG: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - Propylene: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - PVC: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - Fuel Oil: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - PTA: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - MEG: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - Benzene Ethylene: Compressing profit margins. [2] - Soda Ash: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - Soybean Meal: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - Soybean: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - Corn: Expected to run weakly. [5] - Sugar: Oscillating within a range. [5] - Cotton: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - Egg: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - Live Pig: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - Iron Ore: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - Rebar: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - Silicon Iron: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - Manganese Silicon: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - Coke: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - Coking Coal: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - Log: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - Container Freight Index (European Line): It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - Short - Fiber: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - Bottle Chip: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - Offset Printing Paper: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - Pure Benzene: Oscillating weakly. [5]