Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestically, although the current economic growth shows a marginal slowdown, there's no need for excessive concern. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect. Overseas, the US economic resilience has increased, inflation pressure has intensified, and the Fed's internal differences have grown, making the possibility of a September rate cut uncertain [2]. - Overseas, the US economic growth momentum is gradually weakening, while the euro - zone economy shows signs of initial recovery. The Fed has significant internal differences. The dollar index may remain volatile in the short term, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to trade between 7.15 - 7.23 in the short term [4][5]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile today. The bond market may bottom out if the A - share market consolidates. For the shipping industry, the shipping index (European line) futures may continue to decline or return to a volatile trend. For precious metals, gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and suggest a pull - back buying strategy. For base metals, most metals are expected to be in a volatile state, and for energy and chemicals, most products have a neutral - to - bearish outlook in the future [7][8][12]. Summaries by Directory Macro - Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed officials had different views on rate cuts. The US 8 - month manufacturing PMI hit a three - year high, but the labor market cooled. The euro - zone business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the US and the EU reached a trade agreement framework [1]. - The US economic growth is slowing, and the euro - zone economy is recovering. The Fed has internal differences, and the dollar index may oscillate in the short term. The USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade between 7.15 - 7.23 [4][5]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose slightly. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US economic data was mixed. The Fed officials had different views on rate cuts [3]. - The US economic growth is weakening, and the euro - zone economy is recovering. The dollar index may oscillate, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in September and October. The USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade between 7.15 - 7.23 [4][5]. Stock Index - The stock index was volatile yesterday, with the large - cap index rising and the small - and medium - cap index falling. The trading volume in the two markets increased. The futures index showed different trends [6]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile today due to the divergence between bulls and bears. The information from the Jackson Hole Symposium may affect next week's trading sentiment [7]. Treasury Bond - The medium - and long - term Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday. The A - share market's performance affected the bond market [7]. - If the A - share market consolidates, it will be beneficial for the bond market to bottom out. It is recommended not to short, and cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy in small batches [7]. Shipping - The shipping index (European line) futures prices declined. The shipping quotes of Maersk and Evergreen showed different trends [8]. - The shipping index (European line) futures may continue to decline or return to a volatile trend due to the lower quotes of Evergreen [8]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile on Thursday. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the global central bank symposium. The US economic data and Fed officials' remarks affected the precious metals prices [10]. - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to buy on pull - backs [12]. Base Metals - Copper: The copper price was stable on Thursday. A copper mine in Zambia is expanding. The copper price may continue to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [13][14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price was volatile. The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum affected the market sentiment. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate between 20300 - 20800, and it is recommended to trade in bands [15]. - Zinc: The zinc price was in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile [18]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The prices of nickel and stainless steel were in a consolidation phase, waiting for clear signals [19]. - Tin: The tin price was in a small decline on Thursday. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is expected to be volatile [20][21]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures price was in a wide - range oscillation. The market sentiment slowed down, and it is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term and recommended to short far - month contracts in the long term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The industrial silicon futures price rose, and the polysilicon futures price was slightly down. They are expected to be in a volatile and bullish state in the future [23][24]. - Lead: The lead price was in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and it is expected to be volatile [26]. Black Metals - Steel Products: The steel products continued to accumulate inventory. The supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased this week. The overall fundamentals of steel products and raw materials are weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile and bearish state [27][28]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price rose in the morning and fell back in the afternoon. It is expected to be volatile with a relatively smaller range [29][31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal's production and supply are relatively stable, and the demand has slowed down. The coke's 7 - round price increase is about to be implemented, and the supply is still tight. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile due to policy and demand factors [32][33]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: The supply pressure of silicon iron and silicon manganese is increasing. The price is mainly affected by the cost of coal. It is recommended to wait and see [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The crude oil futures prices rose. The market is in a short - term rebound, but the future outlook is neutral - to - bearish due to factors such as demand decline and Fed's rate - cut expectations [37][39]. - LPG: The LPG prices rose both at home and abroad. The supply is still loose, and the demand is in a seasonal high. The overall fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to be volatile [40][41]. - PX - PTA: The PX - PTA prices are strong. The PX supply is expected to increase, and the PTA supply and demand are lack of obvious drivers. It is recommended to buy on dips to expand the PTA processing fee [43][44]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating strongly. The supply and demand are in a fragile balance, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][47]. - PP: The PP price is in an oscillating state. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand recovery is slow. It is expected to continue to oscillate [48][49]. - PE: The PE price rose. The supply increase is limited, and the demand is expected to increase in the future, but the demand recovery speed is slow [50][51]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by supply and demand and inventory factors. The short - term fundamentals of pure benzene are expected to improve slightly, and styrene supply is sufficient. It is recommended to observe the market for pure benzene and consider shorting the spread between pure benzene and styrene [53][54]. - Fuel Oil: The fuel oil prices are in a weak rebound. The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils have different characteristics, and the prices are under pressure [55][57]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price is weakly oscillating following the cost. The supply is stable, the demand is affected by rain and funds, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [58]. - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: The rubber prices are in a volatile state. The supply and demand have different trends, and the inventory pressure is large. It is recommended to wait and see [59][62]. - Urea: The urea price is in a range - bound oscillation. The demand is affected by the off - season and policies, and the price is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [62][63]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: The soda ash supply is high, and the demand is weak. The glass supply is stable, and the demand is in a weak balance. Both are expected to be in a stable and volatile state [65][66].
金融期货早评-20250822
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-22 02:44