铅锌日评：区间整理-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a situation where supply and demand both increase, with no obvious contradictions. The tight raw material supply and the expectation of the peak season support the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will be range - bound in the short term [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season, and domestic inventory continues to accumulate. However, the continuous decline of LME zinc inventory overseas provides some support. It is expected that the zinc price will be range - bound in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.45% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures increased by 0.12% [1]. - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract decreased by 25.41%, and the open interest decreased by 5.44%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 21.12%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.43% [1]. Industry News - Due to the approaching "parade" event, relevant government departments in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region issued notices. From August 25th, vehicles of National V and below are not allowed to enter the factories of recycled lead smelters in Henan, and the lifting of the restriction will be notified separately [1]. - The recycling of waste lead - acid batteries in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has temporarily slowed down, and the supply of raw materials for recycled lead smelting enterprises in North China has decreased. It is expected to return to normal after the event [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. The resumption of production of previously shut - down smelters has led to a steady increase in the production of primary lead. In the recycled lead sector, due to factors such as high prices of waste lead - acid batteries and limited supply of raw materials, some smelters have reduced or stopped production, and the overall production is at a relatively low level [1]. - The terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, and dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. Zinc Market Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.27% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures decreased by 0.11% [1]. - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract decreased by 23.28%, and the open interest decreased by 0.51%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 22.88%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged [1]. Industry News - Nexa Resources' Cerro Pasco mine in Peru has fully resumed normal operation. The short - term disruption is expected to cause a zinc production loss of about 1,200 metal tons, but the company expects to make up for the loss within a month and maintains its annual production guidance for 2025 [1]. - As of August 21st, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 132,900 tons, showing a decrease in domestic inventory [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The raw material inventory of zinc smelters is sufficient, and the zinc ore processing fee is expected to continue to rise, weakening the cost support. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the production increase trend is obvious [1]. - The downstream mainly consumed existing inventory last week. Due to the good performance of black metal prices, some terminals stocked up, driving an increase in the galvanizing production rate [1].