综合晨报-20250822

Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Iran and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks are affecting the oil market, and short - term geopolitical risks remain uncertain. For precious metals, wait for Powell's speech and the progress of Russia - Ukraine talks to find a better entry point. In the base metals market, various metals show different trends based on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. Agricultural products are influenced by weather, policies, and international trade relations. Financial products like stocks and bonds are affected by geopolitical, monetary policy, and market sentiment factors [2][3][48] Summary by Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 10 - contract up 0.94%. Sanctions on Iran and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks led to a correction in the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options for hedging and then enter medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rose driven by the rebound in crude oil. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia increased, and the inventory in Fujairah decreased. The 8 - month arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June, and FU warehouse receipts decreased by 7,000 tons to 73,710 tons. The high - low sulfur spread narrowed slightly [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The overseas market has stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia provides support. In China, the import arrival volume and refinery output have increased, and domestic gas is under pressure. After the decline of naphtha driven by crude oil, the cost advantage of propane is weakened. The market is expected to be in low - level oscillation, waiting for the realization of bearish expectations [23] Precious Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The Fed's meeting minutes showed that officials generally supported keeping rates unchanged, and the market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. With the progress of Russia - Ukraine talks, the upward momentum of gold is insufficient. It is necessary to wait patiently for a better entry point after a correction [3] Base Metals - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose after hitting an intraday low. The August manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US was better than expected and above the boom - bust line. The market is waiting for the interest - rate stance at the Jackson Hole meeting. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan for Shanghai copper [4] - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 began to stabilize and rebound, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - Zinc: The supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals lead to a weak oscillation of Shanghai zinc. The SMM0 zinc has a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in domestic zinc social inventory. In the short term, it oscillates, and in the medium - term, short positions on rebounds are a major strategy [8] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive times, but downstream acceptance of high - price goods is poor, and the supply is expected to increase [10] - Tin: Overnight, LME tin closed down. After the concentrated delivery on the third Wednesday, the 0 - 3 - month spread became a discount of $2. The inventory remains at a low level of 1,740 tons. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11] Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The futures price of carbonate lithium oscillated, and the market was active in trading. Downstream material enterprises increased their inquiry enthusiasm. The total market inventory was basically flat at 142,000 tons. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and risk control should be done [12] - Industrial Silicon: The market is affected by news of energy - consumption standards and small - furnace capacity elimination, but it has not been confirmed. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the improvement space is limited. The market is in oscillation, and there may be a correction if policy expectations cool down [13] - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The price of N - type re -投料 was raised to 49,000 yuan/ton. In August, production increased significantly, but downstream demand growth was limited, and there was inventory pressure. The market is in a stage of oscillation adjustment supported by policy expectations [14] Building Materials - Steel: Night - trading steel prices oscillated weakly. The apparent demand for rebar increased, production decreased, and inventory continued to rise. The demand for hot - rolled coils improved, production increased, and inventory also increased. Iron - water production remained high, and the market faced negative - feedback pressure. The steel market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the changes in the commodity - market trend [15] - Iron Ore: The iron - ore futures oscillated overnight. The global shipment was strong, and the domestic arrival volume increased, with port inventory rising. Terminal demand is weak, but short - term demand is supported by high iron - water production. There is an expectation of production reduction around the parade, and the downward pressure on the futures price may increase [16] - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke prices oscillated downward. There is an expectation of production restriction in East - China coking plants. The seventh round of price increase has improved coking profits, and daily production has increased slightly. Coking coal prices also oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines increased, and the spot - auction market had a slightly higher non - trading rate. Both are affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations and have large price fluctuations [17][18] Agriculture - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: In the next two weeks, the lack of rain in the US soybean - producing areas may challenge new - season crop growth. The global oil - strong trend may drive soybean crushing. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Bullish factors are emerging, and soybean - meal prices can be cautiously bullish in the medium - long term [36] - Edible Oils: Overnight, US soybean oil prices rose sharply. Policy on bio - fuels is expected to have a structural adjustment. Indonesian palm - oil inventory decreased. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. It is advisable to buy on dips for soybean and palm oils, with attention to risk control [37] - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The supply - side variables in the overseas rapeseed market are decreasing, and the focus will shift to the demand side. The import of Australian rapeseed is a hot topic. The supply of rapeseed products is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the futures price is expected to rise [38] - Corn: The auction of imported corn by CGSGB continued, but the transaction rate was low. The low - price Xinjiang corn affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] Livestock and Poultry - Pigs: The pig - grain ratio fell below 6:1, and the government will conduct a 10,000 - ton frozen - pork purchase. This is expected to boost market sentiment, and the previous short - position strategy should be changed to a wait - and - see approach [41] - Eggs: Egg futures continued to fall and hit a new low, but still maintained a premium over the spot. Spot prices continued to fall in many places. The far - month contracts are strong due to the logic of capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the spot - price performance and the risk of short - covering rebounds [42] Textiles - Cotton: US cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and its excellent - rate improved. Brazilian cotton harvesting progress was slow. Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with weak short - term upward momentum. The downstream orders were weak, but there is an expectation of demand improvement in August. It is advisable to wait and see [43] - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is mainly driven by cost. Consider long - position allocation in the medium - term. The long - term over - capacity of the bottle - chip industry limits the repair of processing margins. Attention should be paid to the implementation of petrochemical industry policies [32] Others - Sugar: Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market has sufficient supply, and US sugar is under pressure. In China, the import of syrup is low, and domestic sugar sales are fast. The 25/26 sugar - production in Guangxi is uncertain. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - Apple: Apple futures oscillated. The remaining cold - storage inventory is small, and early - maturing apples are priced high but with average quality. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. There are differences in production estimates, and it is advisable to wait and see [45] - Wood and Pulp: Wood futures oscillated. The overseas price has rebounded, and domestic supply may remain low. Pulp futures continued to fall, and the port inventory increased. Domestic demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see or use an oscillation - range strategy for pulp [46][47] - Stock Index: The A - share market冲高回落, and small - cap stocks adjusted significantly. The trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. The performance of stock - index futures was divided. Global hedge funds are accelerating their entry into the Chinese stock market. Pay attention to Powell's speech at the central - bank meeting and macro - factors [48] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury - bond futures mostly rose, with the 30 - year contract up 0.34%. The short - term Shibor mostly declined. Treasury - bond prices are under pressure, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [49]