Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The rebound of US consumer - end inflation reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. Although the EU intends to promote a peace agreement among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, the continuous gold purchases by global central banks may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to lay out long positions [1]. Summary According to Related Content 1. Market Data - Precious Metals in Shanghai: For Shanghai gold, on August 21, 2025, the closing price was 775.12 yuan/gram, with a daily change of 2.44 yuan and a weekly change of - 0.68 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,854 compared to the previous week. For Shanghai silver, the closing price was 9162 yuan/kg, with a daily change of - 42 yuan and a weekly change of 120 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 203,755 compared to the previous week [1]. - International Precious Metals: COMEX gold futures' closing price on August 21, 2025, was 3383.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of - 8.70 dollars and a weekly change of - 23.50 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 12,817 compared to the previous week. London gold spot price was 3364.40 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of - 6.35 dollars and a weekly change of - 26.10 dollars. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 38.10 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 0.20 dollars and a weekly change of - 0.45 dollars. London silver spot price was 37.57 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 0.49 dollars and a weekly change of - 1.04 dollars [1]. - Other Market Data: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.33%, with a daily change of 0.04% and a weekly change of 0.09%. The US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.94%. The US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.39%, with a daily change of 0.04% and a weekly change of 0.02%. The dollar index was 98.2406, with a daily change of 0.41 and a weekly change of 0.86. The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,771.0989, with a daily change of 4.89 and a weekly change of 74.33 [1]. 2. Important Information - US Information: A 2026 Fed voter said there may be no rate cut in September, and a 2025 voter is hesitant about action. Fed Chair candidate Brad suggested a 100 - basis - point rate cut this year starting in September. The US Department of Justice pressured to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump urged her to resign voluntarily. The US August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 58.3, hitting a new high in over three years. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. US import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the July PPI and core CPI year - on - year rates. The August consumer inflation expectations for one - year and five - year are 4.9% and 3.9% respectively, higher than expected and the previous values [1]. - European Information: The European Central Bank has temporarily paused rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2.8%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI year - on - year rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone, Germany, and France's August manufacturing PMIs were 50.5/49.9/49.9 respectively, higher than expected and the previous values. The European Central Bank may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - UK Information: The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and will continue to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction speed later. The UK's August CPI (core CPI) year - on - year rate was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous values. The August S&P manufacturing (services) PMI was 47.3 (53.6), lower (higher) than expected and the previous values. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - Japanese Information: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan (Tokyo) July CPI (CPI) year - on - year rate was 3.1% (3.1%), meeting expectations but lower than the previous value. The second - quarter GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected and the previous value. The US Treasury Secretary urged the Bank of Japan to raise rates, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time in October [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Due to the rebound of US consumer - end inflation reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, the downside space of precious metal prices is limited. Investors are advised to wait for price drops to lay out long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8500 - 8700 yuan/kg and the resistance level around 9100 - 9500 yuan/kg [1].
贵金属日评：特朗普对更多美联储官员施压辞职，美国8月非官方PMI意外走高-20250822
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-22 03:03