外部不确定性犹存，人民币保持韧性

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.25. The counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and the improvement of onshore assets has enhanced the popularity of the yuan. However, attention should be paid to the volatility risks caused by the Fed's statements during the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [46][49]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month US dollar against the Chinese yuan options shows an appreciation trend of the yuan, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan options has continued to decline, indicating a weakened market expectation of future volatility [4]. - In July 2025, the non - bank sector's foreign - related income was 6904 billion US dollars, and external payments were 6981 billion US dollars, with the payment and receipt scale close to balance. Both payments and receipts were at a high level, indicating that cross - border trade, investment, and service activities remained strong. Seasonal factors led to slightly higher payments than income, but the overall operation was still stable [44]. 2. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and there has been a fluctuation in the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [10]. 3. Macroeconomic Situation 3.1 US Economy - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of 515.4 billion on August 3rd, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was 57.2 billion US dollars. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not give guidance on a September interest rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine whether the Fed would lower the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected [18]. - The ratio of hawks to doves among Fed voting members is 6:5. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating a wait - and - see approach and others supporting interest rate cuts [21]. - The US economic outlook has been revised upward. In July, the decline in fiscal spending was accompanied by a recovery in the service sector's prosperity, which drove the manufacturing industry. However, fiscal spending remained weak. The July non - farm payrolls were significantly revised downward, and the market is waiting for July CPI data [22]. - In July, the US CPI remained flat compared to the previous value, with the core CPI rebounding and the PPI rising more than expected. The rebound in the core CPI was mainly due to the rebound in core services, especially the volatile airline ticket sub - item. The PPI increase was mainly driven by the 2% month - on - month jump in trade services [23]. - US retail sales showed resilience in year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates. Automobile - related, food service and catering, and non - store snacks were the main contributors, and general merchandise stores also remained resilient [26]. 3.2 Chinese Economy - There is a structural divergence in the Chinese economy. In July, exports and consumption showed resilience, but inflation has not recovered, and there is pressure on fixed - asset investment. The fundamentals and market sentiment are increasingly divided [28][29]. - In July 2025, the banking system completed approximately 233.6 billion US dollars in foreign exchange settlement business and 210.8 billion US dollars in foreign exchange sales business, achieving a net surplus of 22.8 billion US dollars. The market showed stable yet dynamic performance, with the foreign exchange market generally in a "stable and positive" state [37]. 4. Domestic Policy - At the 9th Plenary Session of the State Council on August 18th, it was pointed out that efforts should be made to continuously stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, and promote the construction of a unified national market [45].